427
FXUS64 KFWD 190749
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TOMORROW. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING AS GRASS FIRES WILL EASILY
IGNITE.
- AN EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE WILL USHER IN RECORD BREAKING WARMTH
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES STEPPING UP
ANOTHER 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS
TO OUR WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SUPPORT EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE WITH A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. EVEN WITH SOME MOISTURE SLOWLY CREEPING BACK INTO THE
REGION, THE PATTERN REMAINS FUNDAMENTALLY DRY AND NBM DEWPOINTS
STILL LOOK A BIT TOO GENEROUS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED DEWPOINT TRENDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-35 WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS NO LONGER PRIMARILY A WIND-DRIVEN FIRE
WEATHER SETUP, BUT WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND DRY FINE FUELS WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN EVEN WARMER
START FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS, WITH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS RESIDING ALONG ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WHILE
ALSO MAINTAINING ENOUGH LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST FOR PERIODIC
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE, COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE, DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, AND SUBTLE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL ALIGN TO
SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING THAT WILL LIKELY THREATEN
SEVERAL DAILY RECORDS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THAT SIGNAL IS
STRONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO
CLIMB A BIT WARMER THAN THE COOLER BIASED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THAT
SIGNAL IS STRONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER FAVOR
TEMPERATURE OVER- PERFORMANCE.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE MORE USEFUL STORY MAY BE THE IMPACTS RATHER
THAN RECORDS. THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF THE YEAR SO FAR,
ARRIVING VERY EARLY IN THE SEASON AND WITH LITTLE TIME FOR
ACCLIMATION AFTER THE COLD SNAP EARLIER THIS WEEK. WHILE HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS, THAT DOES NOT LESSEN THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF THE HEAT THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK
GUIDANCE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SUGGEST AT LEAST A MINOR RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH A
MODERATE RISK SPREADING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEARING 100 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OFFER LESS RELIEF LATER IN THE PERIOD AS LOWS
TREND MILDER, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE DRY PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DRIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS DO RECOVER SOME, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
OFFSET THE WARMING SIGNAL OR MEANINGFULLY MITIGATE HUMIDITY
CONCERNS WEST OF I-35. WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AND ONLY LIMITED
GULF RECOVERY, CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
FIRE SPREAD LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND EVEN ON DAYS
WITHOUT A CLASSIC WIND-DRIVEN SETUP. A FRONT MAY APPROACH SOMETIME
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
INTERRUPT OR AT LEAST MODERATE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO,
CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE RETURN OR APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS WITH
CLOUDS LIMITED TO SCT/BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 89 59 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 85 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 83 56 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 89 54 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 87 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 89 60 94 65 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 85 56 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 86 58 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 87 54 94 58 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 91 55 95 58 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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