407
FXUS64 KFWD 200652
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
152 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE INCREASING INFLUENCE ON NORTH TEXAS WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RUN 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
GRASS FIRES.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT HEIGHT RISES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD EACH DAY
ALLOWING AN 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE TO EXPAND EASTWARD AS WELL.
850 MB TEMPERATURES SERVE AS A GOOD PROXY FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHEN WE'RE WELL MIXED WHICH SHOULD
BE THE CASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL WINDS
WON'T BE OVERLY STRONG AND FLOW ABOVE 850 MB TURNS MORE NORTHERLY
WHICH DOES REDUCE THE TOTAL DOWNSLOPING WARMING COMPONENT A BIT.
THIS APPEARS TO BE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
WHICH HAS SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IT WILL STILL BE HOT, AND THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A
GRADIENT IN HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
WE'VE TRENDED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF
THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SUNDAY HAS THE ADDED COMPLEXITY OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT NEARING THE RED RIVER
DURING PEAK HEATING, WE'LL LIKELY SEE AN AREA OF STRONG
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS IS CAPTURED PRETTY WELL IN THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE WHERE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SOAR DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST REACH 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN
THE MID 90S. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SOME COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES ACROSS THE
REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 10-20% EACH AFTERNOON WEST OF I-35
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST FLATTENS OUT A
BIT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE 'COOL DOWN' WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS RIDGING EXPANDS AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WE'LL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR GRASS FIRE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY VARY BETWEEN 180-220 DEGREES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER
THAN SOME SLIGHT VARIATION IN DIRECTION, NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 63 97 67 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 90 60 95 64 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 86 59 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 91 58 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 90 60 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 92 64 97 67 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 89 59 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 89 61 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 90 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 94 58 98 62 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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