171
FXUS64 KFWD 210550
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- A GRASS FIRE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK GIVEN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT AND FLATTEN OUT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS IT DOES, HEIGHT RISES WILL
SPREAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND SUNDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE EARLY SEASON HEAT WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH RECORDS IN REACH PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S, BUT
FLOW OFF THE SURFACE WILL HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS
OPPOSED TO MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL LIMIT DOWNSLOPING WARMING TO
SOME DEGREE AND CONTINUES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. WE'VE CONTINUED TO SHAVE 1-2 DEGREES OFF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ON
SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THAT DEVELOP IN AN AREA
OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOP 100
DEGREES WHILE LOW TO MID 90S PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING TO 15-25% WEST OF I-35, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE HUMIDITY IS LOWEST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
WEST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES COOL 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE LOW/MID 90S AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NO
RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GRASS FIRE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS (VARIABLE
BETWEEN 170-210 DEGREES) AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 62 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 89 60 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 86 59 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 90 57 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 90 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 90 63 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 88 59 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 88 60 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 90 58 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 93 58 96 61 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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