638
FXUS64 KFWD 212356
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AGAIN TOMORROW.
- AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE TOMORROW
FOR AREAS NEAR/WEST OF I-35 FROM LOW HUMIDITY, BREEZY WINDS,
AND HOT TEMPERATURES. A LOWER GRASSFIRE THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-35, WHERE
THE DRIER AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES. WITH A LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, RELATIVELY LOW
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, OUR MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, MANAGING TO CLIMB TO THE 90S
AND EVEN SOME TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A WIDE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID 80S IN EAST TEXAS TO AROUND 100-101
AROUND THE BRECKENRIDGE TO GRAHAM AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
SIMILAR SHARP GRADIENT IN THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE DRIEST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-35, ALLOWING FOR MORE
RAPID WARMING COMPARED TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR IN EAST
TEXAS.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR MASS, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING DUE TO AN INCOMING FRONT WILL ENSURE WE SEE
OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR!
TO PUT THIS HEAT IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN MID MARCH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 70-72
DEGREES. OUR EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE ROUGHLY 15-30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL! REMEMBER TO CONTINUE HYDRATING AND TAKING
FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU PLAN ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL COME TO A SCREECHING HALT BEFORE
CLEARING ALL OF OUR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. AT THIS
TIME, THE BRAZOS VALLEY COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE THE FRONT WHATSOEVER
AS IT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S IN NORTH
TEXAS. THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE
EXPERIENCING WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S.
IF YOU'RE WANTING "COOLER" WEATHER, ENJOY MONDAY BECAUSE THE HEAT
RETURNS TUESDAY ONWARD THANKS TO THE RETURN OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE 90S.
A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES DON'T LOOK
LIKELY UNTIL THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS IN APRIL. UNTIL THEN, WE'LL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS AND AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
10-14 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OUT OF THE SSW. FOR D10, A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH N/NE WINDS AROUND
8-11 KTS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN ITS SLOW
SPEED, WITH THE NORTHERN/WESTERN SITES LIKELY SHIFTING A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SITES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR FUTURE TAFS WITH A CURRENT WIND SHIFT OF ~05Z FOR KDFW.
OTHERWISE, INTERMITTENT LLWS OF GENERALLY WS020/23045KT MAY
MATERIALIZE AFTER 03Z UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LAYER. LOW-END IMPACTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ANY SMALLER AIRCRAFT DEALING WITH BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 93 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 64 90 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 63 87 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 62 94 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 64 91 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 66 93 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 63 89 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 64 91 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 61 91 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 62 96 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...GORDON
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