609
FXUS64 KFWD 221809
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND A FRONT WITH A
QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GRASS FIRE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 101. THIS
HEAT IS A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME CURRENTLY SITTING ATOP
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS IT EXPANDS TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS EASTWARD
EXPANSION IS IN PART DUE TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO REDUCE ITS OVERALL
FOOTPRINT ACROSS OUR AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS TODAY. THIS LOW WILL TIGHTEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THIS LOW WILL ALSO HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO
THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, HOT CONDITIONS, AND
DORMANT VEGETATION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO EASTLAND LINE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GRASS FIRE POTENTIAL WILL
EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WHERE A GRASS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT. MAKE SURE YOU DO NOT BURN OUTDOORS
TODAY AS BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADD SOME DIFFICULTY TO
PUTTING OUT ANY FLAMES.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW STRONGER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY AS TO
HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IS APPLIES ITS
BRAKES. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION TOMORROW. HIGHS ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN NORTH TEXAS.
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THE COOL DOWN WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND SOUTH
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ENSURE WE
COMMENCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30% WILL KEEP THE THREAT
FOR GRASS FIRES ALIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AS WE APPROACH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD HELP DRAW HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S
ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, A PATTERN SHIFT THE FIRST
WEEK OF APRIL MAY PUT SOME PRECIPITATION BACK ON THE RADAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER
COMPONENT OF THIS TAF PERIOD THANKS TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 30 KTS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z, AT WHICH POINT WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, USHERING IN NORTHERLY WINDS GOING
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH CLOUD BASES RIGHT AROUND 3000 FEET AGL.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ACROSS D10.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 75 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 59 81 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 58 73 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 55 73 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 74 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 60 77 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 78 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 59 82 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 58 83 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 55 74 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100-101-
115-116-129.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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