036
FXUS64 KFWD 222324
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING'S COLD FRONT, WITH A QUICK WARMUP EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.
- A LOW WILDFIRE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 101. THIS
HEAT IS A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME CURRENTLY SITTING ATOP
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS IT EXPANDS TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS EASTWARD
EXPANSION IS IN PART DUE TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO REDUCE ITS OVERALL
FOOTPRINT ACROSS OUR AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS TODAY. THIS LOW WILL TIGHTEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THIS LOW WILL ALSO HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO
THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, HOT CONDITIONS, AND
DORMANT VEGETATION WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF A BOWIE TO
MINERAL WELLS TO EASTLAND LINE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GRASS FIRE POTENTIAL WILL
EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WHERE A GRASS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS ALSO IN EFFECT. MAKE SURE YOU DO NOT BURN OUTDOORS
TODAY AS BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ADD SOME DIFFICULTY TO
PUTTING OUT ANY FLAMES.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, EXPECT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW STRONGER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINLY AS TO
HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IS APPLIES ITS
BRAKES. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION TOMORROW. HIGHS ARE NOW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN NORTH TEXAS.
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THE COOL DOWN WILL BE TEMPORARY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND SOUTH
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ENSURE WE
COMMENCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30% WILL KEEP THE THREAT
FOR GRASS FIRES ALIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AS WE APPROACH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD HELP DRAW HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S
ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, A PATTERN SHIFT THE FIRST
WEEK OF APRIL MAY PUT SOME PRECIPITATION BACK ON THE RADAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL METROPLEX TAF SITES IN THE NEXT
2-4 HOURS, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL, THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS, WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20
KTS THEN PREVAILING FOLLOWING THE FROPA. THE FRONT'S PACE SHOULD
ALSO BEGIN TO SLOW DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS ITS
PARENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. WHILE MOSTLY VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS IN THE 2-4 KFT LAYER TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 15-18Z AS
WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FETCH. HOWEVER, THE
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS IS LESS THAN 20%, AND TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A LIGHTER NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 58 71 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 59 76 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 58 69 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 53 69 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 70 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 59 72 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 73 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 60 76 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 57 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 73 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100-101-
115-116-129.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...STALLEY
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