087
FXUS64 KFWD 230520
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1220 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR GRASS FIRES ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX TONIGHT AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
COMANCHE TO WAXAHACHIE TO PARIS. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
NORTH WINDS AND COOLER AIR HAVE SETTLED IN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 40S. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY BECOMING STALLED OUT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TX
COUNTIES BY SUNRISE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH EASTERLY WINDS MAINTAINING A TAP
INTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT, SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS STAY IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WHILE FARTHER SOUTH, WE'LL SEE HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO PERHAPS AS WARM AS THE MID 80S ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSOLVING HEADED INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST, WE'LL SEE SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES MAY STILL BE
DEALING WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND WILL SEE HIGHS REMAIN IN
THE 70S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30%
AGAIN THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR GRASS FIRE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK AND SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK
LIMITED AT THIS TIME WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE D10 AIRSPACE AT THIS HOUR MOST
SITES NOW IN NORTHERLY FLOW. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.
THICK HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME BKN050 CIGS DEVELOP AROUND MORNING AND
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD
HEIGHT TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 93 58 71 58 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 90 59 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 89 58 69 55 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 93 53 69 53 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 94 57 70 56 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 93 59 72 59 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 89 58 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 89 60 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 91 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 97 53 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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