845
FXUS64 KFWD 100721
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
221 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS (20-40% CHANCE) ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS TO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
IT'S A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
TODAY, WITH PWATS GRADUALLY RISING TOWARDS THE 1.25 INCH MARK.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S, ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT MLCAPE PEAKING BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG ALONG WITH AMPLE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE
COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE STRONGLY DIURNAL AND SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
AND MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE LONG AWAITED ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME GETS UNDERWAY TOMORROW AS
A LARGE DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND A STOUT
UPPER RIDGE TAKES SHAPE NEAR FLORIDA, LEADING TO FAST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO OVER OUR REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING US DAILY AND NIGHTLY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK, AND POSSIBLY LONGER AS 00Z
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF A PATTERN SHIFT IN THE
LONG RANGE. STEADILY INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM
THE GULF AND DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU
WITH LEAD TO MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG INSTABILITY AT
TIMES, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS, WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALSO LOOKS TO INCREASE INTO THE 30-50 KT RANGE. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS SOME STORMS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK COULD BE STRONG OR
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS ON SATURDAY, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG, BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
LOWER CAPE AND SHEAR ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 55 KT JET
MAX EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE STATE. AS THIS WAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD, GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WIND FIELDS WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR UP TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-8 KM SHEAR UP TO 60 KTS. WITH
MLCAPE FORECAST TO RISE UP TO 2500 J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE
CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL PROVIDE A NOTABLE SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST.
MONDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE AS OUR AREA SEES WEAK UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN
SUNDAY'S SHORTWAVE AND THE NEXT STRONGER WAVE ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. EVEN SO, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
GIVEN WEAK CAPPING, STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR. THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FROM TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS
THE 00Z GFS IS ABOUT ONE DAY FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF EJECTING A
60+ KT H5 JET NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL ENDS UP CORRECT, A MORE SYNOPTICALLY EVIDENT ROUND OF STRONG
TO SEVERE DRYLINE STORMS COULD OCCUR ON ONE OF THESE DAYS GIVEN
THE AMPLE CAPE/SHEAR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, MODELS
GREATLY DISAGREE ON DRYLINE PLACEMENT, A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT
COMING IN FROM THE NORTH, AND MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT WILL
GREATLY IMPACT OUR FORECAST. OVERALL, HOWEVER, LOWER POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS TAF PERIOD BEFORE MVFR CIGS
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS IN THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 16-17Z, WITH IFR CIGS AT TIMES AT ACT. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BREAK UP AND RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH VCSH
DEVELOPING NEAR AIRPORTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON - MOST LIKELY AT ACT
WHERE TEMPO -SHRA HAS BEEN ADDED. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON SUNDAY FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY
REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 64 81 66 / 30 10 30 40
WACO 80 64 81 66 / 50 10 40 30
PARIS 80 60 81 64 / 10 10 10 20
DENTON 80 60 80 64 / 20 10 30 50
MCKINNEY 80 62 81 65 / 20 10 30 40
DALLAS 82 65 82 66 / 30 10 30 40
TERRELL 80 62 82 65 / 20 10 20 20
CORSICANA 83 64 84 67 / 30 10 30 20
TEMPLE 80 63 82 66 / 50 20 40 30
MINERAL WELLS 80 61 80 63 / 30 10 40 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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