202
FXUS64 KFWD 101852
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
152 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS (20-40% CHANCE) ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS TO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A BROAD FETCH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS ENVELOPED ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY, BORNE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF BY STEADY
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A SHIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS MORNING HAS MIXED
OUT TO SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AS OF MIDDAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS ZONES WITHIN AN AREA
OF MODEST MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY, AIDED BY A WEAK TROUGH IN THE
MID LAYERS. NO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER.
A RESUMPTION OF MILD, CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
WEST COAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A PRONOUNCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE
REGION AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
DEPICTED OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, UPPER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PREFERRED.
INGREDIENTS FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS OUR
REGION, HOWEVER, WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING LIKELY REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK,
WILL FEATURE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS MEAN
TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE RELATIVE SHORT TERM ARE
ADVERTISING AN INITIAL ORGANIZED ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE BIG COUNTRY REGION TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT,
MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH POPS HAVE
BEEN DEPICTED AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AREAS WEST OF I-35 PRIOR TO MIDDAY. A
SECONDARY ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
EAST OF I-35 LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
A REASONABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN'T
TOTALLY BE DISCOUNTED EITHER.
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AS
THE REGION FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. ASIDE
FROM SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
EARLY IN THE DAY, COVERAGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE.
A RESUMPTION OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRANSIT THE REGION. WITH THE
DRYLINE REMAINING A FIXTURE OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INITIATE TO OUR WEST, AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BOTH DAYS. FOR NOW, SCATTERED POPS
HAVE BEEN DEPICTED ACROSS MAINLY OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND LIFT
WILL BE IN GOOD SUPPLY BOTH DAYS, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
PRODUCING ALL FORMS OF HAZARDS, ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS THE PRIMARY
PERIOD TO BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES A BIT MORE DISPERSED AS WE REACH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD FACILITATE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WIDESPREAD MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE TO WARRANT MAJOR CONCERN FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IN PARTICULAR, THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN TOTALS THROUGH
THURSDAY ARE CONFINED WITHIN THE RANGE OF 2-3 INCHES. THAT SAID,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 75-90% CLIMATOLOGICAL
CATEGORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
SLOW, TRAINING ACTIVITY WILL FACE THE THREAT OF AT LEAST
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS AN IMPACT THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT, AND ENHANCED TOTALS (BEYOND
WHAT'S EXPECTED AT PRESENT) ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, LIMITED
SUBSIDENCE AND PERIODIC CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL SHOULD
COLLECTIVELY YIELD DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS
IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL, BUT NOT UNUSUAL BY ANY MEANS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT ALL NORTH TEXAS
TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z, WITH CLEARING SKIES EVOLVING DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN D10 THIS
AFTERNOON, OWING TO AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMPING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF INTO NORTH TEXAS, A REPEAT ROUND OF
ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDINESS, LEADING TO LOW MVFR CEILINGS, WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN 08-10Z, SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO D10 BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. AS WAS THE CASE TODAY, MORNING
MIXING SHOULD ENABLE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS FROM 14Z ONWARD
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WITHIN D10
BETWEN 11Z AND 14Z SATURDAY, THOUGH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT THIS DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR CIGS AT ANY TAF SITES SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AFTER 17Z SATURDAY, AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING STARTS TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY, AT SPEEDS AVERAGING 07-15 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 83 67 79 / 10 30 60 80
WACO 64 82 67 79 / 20 40 40 70
PARIS 60 82 64 77 / 10 10 20 80
DENTON 62 81 64 79 / 10 20 70 80
MCKINNEY 62 81 65 79 / 10 20 50 80
DALLAS 65 83 67 80 / 10 30 50 80
TERRELL 62 82 65 79 / 10 20 30 80
CORSICANA 65 84 68 82 / 10 30 20 70
TEMPLE 64 82 67 80 / 20 40 50 70
MINERAL WELLS 61 81 63 82 / 10 50 80 80
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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