218
FXUS64 KFWD 111748
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, UPDATED LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG, WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TORNADOES.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES NEXT
WEEK, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY; SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. OUR THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW INTENSE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY WEST OF
I-35. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST OF I-35 LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST AND OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WHERE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE STILL RESIDES.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED IS WHERE
THE BEST RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE WILL MATERIALIZE. WE'RE STILL WATCHING AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST TX DURING THE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH TONIGHT'S
ACTIVITY (MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES) AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST UPDATES AS DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES OVER
THE WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
KEEPING THE WEATHER PATTERN FAIRLY ACTIVE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FEATURES LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES BUT WE'RE STILL EXPECTING
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ABOUT THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR
EACH DAY IS WELL DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY. HOWEVER, MONDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN OVERALL LULL IN THE DAILY ACTIVITY AS
OUR REGION SEES HEIGHT RISES ALOFT DUE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN SUNDAY'S WAVE AND THE NEXT ONE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME FROM DAYTIME HEATING ALONE. EVEN SO, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ON THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
WHICH COULD REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH OTHER WAA SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR
TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA. CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS,
WHILE NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY, WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG/SEVERE THREAT IF STORMS CAN OCCUR.
TUESDAY HAS MORE LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN
OUR CWA AS A 55-60 KT H5 JET EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS
TEXAS TOWARDS OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST, AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIZABLE CAP ACROSS OUR REGION, LIFT APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM ON/NEAR THE
DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO FORM/MAINTAIN THEMSELVES.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS TUESDAY WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, BUT
LIKE TUESDAY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW MUCH STORM ACTIVITY CAN
FORM.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH 00Z GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS EJECTING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE TWO MORE
DAYS OF POSSIBLE DRYLINE STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
POPS WARRANTED, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVE ON
THURSDAY LIKELY WILL KEEP THAT DAY QUIET. GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CONCERNS...ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CEILINGS RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN 3-5 KFT CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING REMAINS LOW, WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A STORM OR TWO BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES BY 02-03Z. A
STORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY MORNING
(AROUND 10-11Z). THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE
MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, AS SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP THIS ROUND OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE NORTH TEXAS SITES. FOR WACO, THE STORM CHANCES
ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER 20-21Z.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MVFR
ARRIVING AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL DAY. A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON SUNDAY. EVEN IF ACTIVATION
IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 67 78 68 / 30 60 80 30
WACO 82 67 76 68 / 30 50 70 50
PARIS 82 63 76 66 / 20 20 70 60
DENTON 80 65 77 65 / 30 70 80 30
MCKINNEY 81 66 77 67 / 30 50 70 40
DALLAS 82 68 78 68 / 30 50 70 40
TERRELL 82 66 78 67 / 20 30 70 50
CORSICANA 84 68 80 69 / 30 20 70 50
TEMPLE 81 67 78 68 / 40 60 70 50
MINERAL WELLS 80 64 80 65 / 30 80 80 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page