382
FXUS64 KFWD 120010
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH
OF I-20 WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES NEXT
WEEK, WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS WITH A DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AFTER
SUNSET. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND AS SUCH, THE LARGE AREA
OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
WEST, AN EMBEDDED PERTURBATION SPREADING OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO
AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
GIVEN THE INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF MORNING CONVECTION, WE'VE
LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL TX COUNTIES WHERE
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE CHARACTERIZED BY PWS
AROUND 1.8". EVEN WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THIS UNCAPPED AIRMASS
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A CONVECTIVE LULL
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY; SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. OUR THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY.
LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW INTENSE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT CROSSES OUR REGION, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY WEST OF
I-35. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EAST OF I-35 LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST AND OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WHERE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE STILL RESIDES.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED IS WHERE
THE BEST RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE WILL MATERIALIZE. WE'RE STILL WATCHING AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST TX DURING THE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH TONIGHT'S
ACTIVITY (MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES) AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS DEVELOP. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST UPDATES AS DETAILS CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY. HOWEVER, MONDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN OVERALL LULL IN THE DAILY ACTIVITY AS
OUR REGION SEES HEIGHT RISES ALOFT DUE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN SUNDAY'S WAVE AND THE NEXT ONE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME FROM DAYTIME HEATING ALONE. EVEN SO, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ON THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
WHICH COULD REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH OTHER WAA SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR
TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA. CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS,
WHILE NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY, WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG/SEVERE THREAT IF STORMS CAN OCCUR.
TUESDAY HAS MORE LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN
OUR CWA AS A 55-60 KT H5 JET EJECTS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS
TEXAS TOWARDS OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST, AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIZABLE CAP ACROSS OUR REGION, LIFT APPEARS
STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM ON/NEAR THE
DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO FORM/MAINTAIN THEMSELVES.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS TUESDAY WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, BUT
LIKE TUESDAY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW MUCH STORM ACTIVITY CAN
FORM.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH 00Z GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS EJECTING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE TWO MORE
DAYS OF POSSIBLE DRYLINE STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
POPS WARRANTED, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVE ON
THURSDAY LIKELY WILL KEEP THAT DAY QUIET. GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS WITH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE D10 AIRSPACE AROUND
11Z WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA BETWEEN 12-14Z AT ALL SITES. IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF ANY MORNING
CONVECTION WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL TS CHANCES APPEAR TO BE PRETTY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 79 68 84 / 40 90 10 10
WACO 67 77 68 82 / 30 80 20 20
PARIS 64 77 65 80 / 20 50 10 20
DENTON 65 79 65 84 / 60 90 0 10
MCKINNEY 67 77 67 81 / 30 90 10 10
DALLAS 68 79 68 84 / 30 90 10 10
TERRELL 66 78 67 82 / 20 70 20 20
CORSICANA 69 80 69 84 / 20 50 20 20
TEMPLE 66 79 68 83 / 30 80 20 20
MINERAL WELLS 64 82 65 87 / 90 80 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...DUNN
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