794
FXUS64 KFWD 152342
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THREE SEVERE-WARNED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE THEIR TREK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. 1-1.5" HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THESE CELLS
START TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
INCREASES BEYOND SUNSET. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EITHER
DIMINISH OR EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
10-11PM TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING A POSSIBILITY
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
ANOTHER CLOUDY AND BREEZY START OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE
AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WE'RE MONITORING TWO AREAS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP. FIRST, WE WILL HAVE OUR TYPICAL WAA SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREAT. THE SECOND AREA WE'RE
WATCHING IS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RED RIVER.
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG A
DRYLINE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN, SOME OF THEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER, BUT IT CAN'T
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
US-380, BUT WE CAN'T RULE A STORM OR TWO FARTHER SOUTH (NEAR THE
I-20/I-30 CORRIDOR) THAT COULD REMAIN STRONG AND/OR SEVERE. OUR
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTEND OF THIS
ACTIVITY AS OUR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MORE STABLE.
AFTER THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND/OR MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
LOW CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND CLEARING
SKIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
WELL ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY AND LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE WILL WRAP UP THE WEEK WITH FAIRLY QUIET AND WARM WEATHER. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE TO PUSH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS WITH THE SURFACE DRYLINE
STAYING FAR WEST OF OUR AREA. WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE BEST LIFT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
OKLAHOMA. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDY CONDITIONS, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO NORTH TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING MAINLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A COOLDOWN
WILL FOLLOW AS WELL WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ALL DAY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
COOLER WEATHER AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY, BUT WE
COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO SWING BY THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WE ARE MONITORING THREE SEVERE-WARNED SUPERCELLS WEST OF THE
METROPLEX THAT WILL CONTINUE TREKKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TRACKING THE SOUTHERN CELL PUTS IT IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DENTON COUNTY ~0200-0215Z THIS EVENING (IF IT
SUSTAINS). HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WEAKENING
IN THIS ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 1.5 HOURS WITH BOTH THE
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND THE INTERACTION
WITH AN ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALL DAY
TODAY. THUS, WE WILL KEEP A VCTS GROUP FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS FROM
01Z-04Z THIS EVENING, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEARING TSRA AT
KAFW AND KDFW. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALSO STARTED
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE METROPLEX IN THE LAST 30
MINUTES.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT
TIMES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF I-35 THROUGH THE EVENING. EVEN
IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 87 67 85 / 30 10 10 10
WACO 67 84 67 86 / 30 0 0 0
PARIS 65 82 65 82 / 60 10 10 10
DENTON 64 87 66 83 / 40 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 66 85 67 83 / 40 10 10 10
DALLAS 68 87 67 85 / 30 0 0 10
TERRELL 66 84 67 84 / 40 10 0 10
CORSICANA 68 86 68 88 / 40 0 0 0
TEMPLE 67 86 67 88 / 30 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 63 88 65 85 / 20 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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