462
FXUS64 KFWD 172303
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED TROUGHING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TODAY, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE'LL
HAVE TO WATCH A TRAILING DRYLINE WHICH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVES THESE INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR, AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS NOT NEGLIGIBLE THANKS TO A 110 KT UPPER JET SPREADING
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF A SMALL DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH. WE'LL KEEP EARLY EVENING POPS
CONFINED TO 10% AT THIS TIME, BUT ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE A HAIL THREAT.
BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SURGE SOUTH AND SHOULD CROSS
THE RED RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME, SO WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, DESPITE THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPARTING THE
REGION, STRONG FRONTAL FORCING WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-20
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION
AIDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TX
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THIS EVENING
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST PACE AT WHICH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD. MOST AREAS SHOULD PICK UP LESS THAN AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH WIND AND RAIN MAKING IT FEEL MUCH COOLER.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH
COOLER WEATHER PERSISTING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN A QUICK RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MONDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF DURING THIS TIME, WE'LL SEE A QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WHILE WE'RE NOT EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL, AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL SEE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 80S AREAWIDE BY
WEDNESDAY.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS BETWEEN 0830-0930Z AND THROUGH WACO
AROUND 12Z, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AN ABRUPT WIND
NORTH SHIFT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED. ASCENT
ATOP THE FRONTAL SURFACE WILL RESULT IN A WINDOW OF POST-FRONTAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH A FEW HOURS OF POST-
FRONTAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE LOW CLOUD DECK SCATTERS TO VFR. NORTH
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE HEADING INTO THE EVENING, WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 55 65 47 73 / 70 40 10 0
WACO 60 64 46 72 / 40 70 40 0
PARIS 54 63 42 72 / 60 30 10 0
DENTON 52 64 41 72 / 80 30 10 0
MCKINNEY 55 65 44 73 / 70 40 10 0
DALLAS 56 65 48 74 / 70 40 10 0
TERRELL 57 64 44 73 / 60 50 20 0
CORSICANA 60 65 47 75 / 30 70 40 0
TEMPLE 61 65 48 74 / 20 60 50 0
MINERAL WELLS 54 65 41 73 / 80 30 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DUNN
LONG TERM....DUNN
AVIATION...STALLEY
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