604
FXUS64 KFWD 201719
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1219 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND A FEW STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH TEXAS LATE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- A THREAT FOR MORE TYPICAL SPRING TIME SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUD
COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAINLY IN CENTRAL TX. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SPREADING INTO WEST TEXAS. FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY EXPAND AND LOWER
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME,
ALTHOUGH FORECAST AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER NORTH OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THIS DRY LAYER
WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AMIDST MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
FEW INSTANCES OF THUNDER, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND
TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TUESDAY
EVENING BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED EAST OF I-35 INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY
TRAVERSE THE REGION, LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 DURING THIS
TIME.
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO FAVOR A MORE TYPICAL SPRING TIME SETUP WITH A SHARPENING
DRYLINE TO OUR WEST AND A WARM MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST BENEATH A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE WELL REMOVED FROM
NORTH TEXAS, HOWEVER, A FAIRLY SHARP DRYLINE WILL BE PARKED JUST
WEST OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL BE NOSING IN ATOP A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE THE
OVERALL CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION ARE LIKELY LESS THAN 10%
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, THERE IS STILL SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE DRYLINE PUSHES A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT MAY STEADILY
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE'LL HAVE TO REALLY
WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY REMAIN
SHARPLY BACKED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IF SO, ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD POSE A GREATER
THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AT THIS
TIME POPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 20-30% GIVEN THE OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINER SCALE DETAILS, BUT A GENERAL INCREASE IN
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS HOUR WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. THE ONGOING RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING FROM HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND OVERALL PRECIPITATION IS LIGHT OR NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT
ALL. THIS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 55 65 58 / 10 70 70 20
WACO 67 56 64 60 / 30 80 80 20
PARIS 74 52 63 55 / 0 20 50 30
DENTON 72 52 64 55 / 10 70 60 20
MCKINNEY 73 53 64 57 / 0 60 60 30
DALLAS 73 56 64 58 / 10 70 70 20
TERRELL 73 53 64 58 / 10 60 60 30
CORSICANA 72 56 67 60 / 10 70 80 30
TEMPLE 64 55 67 60 / 50 90 80 30
MINERAL WELLS 66 52 64 56 / 20 80 60 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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