802
FXUS64 KFWD 291059
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH A HAIL THREAT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES EXPECTED. SOME FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AS WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW COOLING TEMPERATURES
INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INTO
THE REGION. WITH A 925-850 MB THETA-E AXIS DRAPED RIGHT ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM (MUCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG), IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE
SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE HAVE TO WORK
WITH, A FEW OF THESE COULD BE STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH A
HAIL THREAT. HAVE UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT THESE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH INCREASING INHIBITION. OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF MUCAPE
AVAILABLE FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS, BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT AND WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR RENEWED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. WE'LL HAVE POPS
AROUND 20% FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSING THE BASE OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WE'LL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT FORCING FOR
ASCENT THROUGH THE DAY. COMBINED WITH PW VALUES >1.8" AND
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER,
WE'LL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
WHILE MUCAPE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DURING THE DAY, WE CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HAIL SIZES WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY SMALLER THAT WHAT
WE SAW ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE 40-60% ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND 10-20% NORTH OF I-20. MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 60S ALL DAY.
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS OUT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO AND INTO
FAR WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP
OUR COOLER NEAR SURFACE LAYER COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. WHILE POPS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AREAWIDE
(50-60%), MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP 1/2" OF RAIN OR LESS ON
THURSDAY. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND IS DISCUSSED BELOW.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION (MAINLY SHOWERS)
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEAR THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL STILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-20 WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. LIGHTER BUT NON-
TRIVIAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20 AND SHOULD TOTAL 1 TO
1.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS, THE OVERALL RAIN RATES AND SPEED
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ISOLATED TO AREAS WHERE ANY TRAINING CONVECTION SETS UP. ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S MAKING FOR A COLD FIRST DAY OF MAY.
A NICE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
IFR CIGS/VIS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE D10 AIRSPACE AT THIS TIME,
AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED RIGHT ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR. AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT AND IT
APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INTO
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS, IT DOES APPEAR MORE LIKELY THAT
WE'LL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE'LL PREVAIL MVFR
CIGS TO START WITH VCTS BY 17Z AND A TEMPO FOR -TSRA BETWEEN
18-20Z. TIMING COULD VARY BY AN HOUR HERE OR THERE BUT THINK THIS
REPRESENTS THE GREATEST THREAT AT THE MOMENT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CIGS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE EVENING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
MVFR GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 60 66 54 / 50 30 60 70
WACO 72 61 70 55 / 50 30 60 80
PARIS 70 57 66 52 / 30 30 50 60
DENTON 69 58 66 51 / 30 20 60 70
MCKINNEY 69 58 66 53 / 40 30 60 70
DALLAS 71 61 66 54 / 50 30 60 70
TERRELL 71 60 67 54 / 50 40 60 70
CORSICANA 72 61 69 57 / 60 40 60 80
TEMPLE 74 61 73 57 / 50 30 50 80
MINERAL WELLS 70 57 66 51 / 20 20 70 80
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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