764
FXUS64 KFWD 300023
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
723 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES EXPECTED. SOME FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED
WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 4 INCHES (~10% CHANCE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TX). EXPECT FORECAST DETAILS TO CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED AS
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BETTER CAPTURE THE MESOSCALE FEATURES.
SANCHEZ
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE IN THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD AS SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR OUR SOUTHERN
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES WITH 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE I-20
CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LEVEL PASSING WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL (~1.5-2
INCHES) AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. WHILE OUR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO 1-1.5 INCHES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
THIS ACTIVITY RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF ASCENT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, BUT WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. THE CURRENT
SCENARIO SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
OUR CWA. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, SHIFTING INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IF TRAINING OCCURS OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT
RAINFALL. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE DETAILS BELOW.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, CONVECTION (MAINLY SHOWERS)
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEAR THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL STILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-20 WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. LIGHTER BUT NON-
TRIVIAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20 AND SHOULD TOTAL 1 TO
1.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS, THE OVERALL RAIN RATES AND SPEED
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ISOLATED TO AREAS WHERE ANY TRAINING CONVECTION SETS UP. ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S MAKING FOR A COLD FIRST DAY OF MAY.
A NICE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH A
DETERIORATION OF CEILINGS EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. LOW-END MVFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY FOR D10 WITH A TEMPO INCLUDED FOR IFR
CIGS FROM 13-17Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IFR CIGS EXTENDING BEYOND
THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR BEING THE
PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FOR SCATTERED
OFF AND ON PRECIP, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA POSSIBLE
MAINLY 17-22Z, BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. FOR ACT, IFR/LIFR PROBS ARE HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END MVFR. NE/E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 61 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
WACO 70 63 69 55 / 40 30 60 80
PARIS 70 57 66 52 / 60 20 30 40
DENTON 67 57 66 52 / 30 20 60 60
MCKINNEY 68 58 66 53 / 40 20 50 60
DALLAS 70 62 67 54 / 50 30 60 60
TERRELL 69 60 67 53 / 60 40 50 70
CORSICANA 71 63 70 56 / 60 40 60 80
TEMPLE 76 63 72 56 / 50 30 50 90
MINERAL WELLS 67 56 66 51 / 30 20 60 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....DUNN
AVIATION...GORDON
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