045
FXUS64 KFWD 301821
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
121 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHTNING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
TX FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS
OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THAT
SHOULD DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-20.
WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ATOP
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, OUR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS HOUR AND A COOLER NORTH WIND PREVAILS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. THE MID LEVELS FEATURE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND 100 KT SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONGER COMPACT
SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN, THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY WEAK ASCENT FROM SMALLER
PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. AS IS COMMON IN THESE TYPES
OF SETUPS, TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES CAN BE A CHALLENGE
AND WE'LL RELY ON THE OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
HELP PICK OUT WHEN STRONGER ASCENT APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING
UPSTREAM. FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE AROUND 20%.
HEADED INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BECOMING SHEARED APART IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES, FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL VEER A BIT IN
RESPONSE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND INTO NORTH
TEXAS. FORECAST 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION IS BEING USED AS A
PROXY FOR THE AREA OF BEST ASCENT AND THIS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN
OVERSPREAD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID/LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. WE'LL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH
POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY THEN WE
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE BETTER FORCING
MOVES TO THE EAST. UNLIKE WEDNESDAY, MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
LOWER. THAT BEING SAID, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL IN THE STRONGER
CORES.
WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, OUR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER BAJA WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE AN ALL DAY
RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT IN QPF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE I-20
CORRIDOR BEING AN APPROXIMATE DIVIDING LINE FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL
TO THE SOUTH AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD TOTAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-20, WHILE AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER SHOULD PICK UP BETWEEN 1/2
AND 1 INCH OF RAIN. HIGHER END AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 4 INCHES. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LOOKS CONSIDERABLY LOWER DURING THIS TIME SO THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF FORCING, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME CORES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING THROUGH THE DAY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, NORTH WINDS, AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AND IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON
FRIDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A FANTASTIC WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH
SUNNY SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS OUR SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND ACCORDINGLY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW STORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND ANOTHER LATE WEEK FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY. OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LOOKS QUITE NICE.
DUNN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND LOW
CEILINGS/VSBY. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR WILL
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 55 58 50 / 50 50 70 30
WACO 69 55 59 50 / 60 80 90 30
PARIS 66 53 62 48 / 40 20 50 30
DENTON 66 52 59 47 / 50 50 70 30
MCKINNEY 66 54 59 49 / 50 40 60 30
DALLAS 68 55 58 51 / 50 50 70 30
TERRELL 67 54 58 49 / 50 50 70 40
CORSICANA 71 56 58 51 / 60 70 90 40
TEMPLE 72 57 58 50 / 60 90 100 30
MINERAL WELLS 66 51 56 46 / 60 60 80 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ156-158-162-174-175.
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