620
FXUS64 KFWD 301919
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHTNING AND POCKETS
OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
TX FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THE BEST AREA OF ASCENT MOVES OUT OF OUR
REGION. UNTIL THEN, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN, CLOUDY
AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 60S.
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS STILL
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACHING, WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE FROM BAJA. THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TX COAST WILL ALSO PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AS ADVERTISED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS, DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN FAIRLY
UNCHANGED, AVERAGING BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR POCKETS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS
INCREASED. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
SEE LOWER TOTALS, EVEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
IMPACTS IN AREAS WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OTHER
NOTABLE FEATURE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH, BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, PLEASANT AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL ENJOY HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE 80S BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%) MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME,
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND LOW
CEILINGS/VSBY. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS LOWER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS THAT AT LEAST MVFR WILL
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
SANCHEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 56 60 50 / 50 60 80 30
WACO 69 56 58 49 / 70 80 90 30
PARIS 67 55 62 48 / 30 20 50 20
DENTON 66 54 60 46 / 50 50 70 20
MCKINNEY 66 55 60 48 / 50 40 60 30
DALLAS 66 56 60 51 / 50 60 80 30
TERRELL 66 55 59 48 / 50 60 80 40
CORSICANA 68 57 60 51 / 60 80 90 40
TEMPLE 71 57 60 50 / 70 90 100 30
MINERAL WELLS 64 53 57 46 / 50 70 80 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ156-158-162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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