151
FXUS64 KFWD 010011
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTNING AND
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
TX FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-20. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THE BEST AREA OF ASCENT MOVES OUT OF OUR
REGION. UNTIL THEN, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN, CLOUDY
AND COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 60S.
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IS STILL
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACHING, WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE FROM BAJA. THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TX COAST WILL ALSO PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING
FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. AS ADVERTISED OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS, DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN FAIRLY
UNCHANGED, AVERAGING BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR POCKETS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS
INCREASED. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
SEE LOWER TOTALS, EVEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING
IMPACTS IN AREAS WHERE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OTHER
NOTABLE FEATURE FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH, BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, PLEASANT AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL ENJOY HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY GIVEN THE RETURN FLOW AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO THE 80S BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%) MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME,
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF D10. AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO
PALESTINE LINE BY AROUND 10Z, EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO D10 AFTER
13Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER
16Z, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE D10-AREA TAFS, ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
21Z, AFTER WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD WEAKEN, AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD CORRESPONDINGLY DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AT THE DFW TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD LARGELY TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 03Z. HOWEVER,
THE ARRIVAL OF RENEWED WIDESPREAD LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL HELP BRING CEILINGS BACK DOWN BELOW 2KFT
ACROSS D10 BY 09Z. KEPT CIGS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE IFR CATEGORY
THROUGH THE 12-18Z PERIOD, OWING TO THE POSSIBILTY OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THAT
SAID, THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS D10 DURING
THIS PERIOD DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST,
AND WILL MONITOR THE NEED TO LOWER CIGS IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCES. AT WACO, DEEPER INTO THE REGION OF MOISTURE, LIFT AND
PRECIPITATION, THE CEILING FORECAST WILL BE CUT AND DRIED:
ESSENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z FRIDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE IN
NORTHERN MEXICO. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AT SPEEDS AVERAGING 8-13 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 60 50 74 / 60 80 30 0
WACO 56 58 49 71 / 80 90 30 0
PARIS 55 62 48 72 / 20 50 20 0
DENTON 54 60 46 73 / 50 70 20 0
MCKINNEY 55 60 48 73 / 40 60 30 0
DALLAS 56 60 51 74 / 60 80 30 0
TERRELL 55 59 48 72 / 60 80 40 0
CORSICANA 57 60 51 74 / 80 90 40 0
TEMPLE 57 60 50 73 / 90 100 30 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 57 46 73 / 70 80 20 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ156-158-162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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