862
FXUS64 KFWD 010618
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
118 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LOWER TOTALS IN NORTH TEXAS.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN OUR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1-3 INCHES LIKELY.
SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW.
LIFT WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A NEARBY UPPER JET STREAK, ALONG WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NEAR AND ABOVE 700 MB ATOP THE COOLER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT THUNDER, BUT NORTH TEXAS IS
UNLIKELY TO OBSERVE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TODAY IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY NOTEWORTHY MUCAPE. OVERALL, THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO CENTERVILLE LINE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IMPACTS.
WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD AS MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY AND PLEASANT
WEEKEND. WE'LL REMAIN WITHIN IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY'S HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY, BUT THE 60F ISODROSOTHERM
WILL REMAIN SCOURED FROM THE CWA UNTIL MONDAY WHEN LAGGING
MOISTURE RETURN FINALLY RESUMES. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUED
TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT COUPLE OF DAYS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE A WARMING TREND ENSUES. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY AIDED BY VEERING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTRUSION. THE BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING
AND PERHAPS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE QUALITY. EXTENDED GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FAVORS A PERSISTENT ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK, WITH POSSIBLY A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR IS WORKING INTO THE TAF SITES FROM THE
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO VERY
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
EXPECTED AT D10 AIRPORTS. WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE, AND CATEGORY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DEGRADED CIG/VIS WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT
WACO, WHERE A SMALL AMOUNT OF THUNDER COULD ALSO BE OBSERVED.
PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AT WACO. A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THE EVENING WITH VFR
PREVAILING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 56 60 50 / 50 60 70 30
WACO 69 56 58 49 / 70 90 100 50
PARIS 67 53 62 47 / 30 20 40 20
DENTON 66 55 60 46 / 50 40 60 20
MCKINNEY 66 55 61 48 / 50 40 60 30
DALLAS 66 57 60 50 / 50 60 70 30
TERRELL 66 55 58 49 / 50 70 80 40
CORSICANA 68 55 58 51 / 60 90 100 60
TEMPLE 71 56 58 50 / 70 100 100 50
MINERAL WELLS 64 54 58 46 / 50 70 80 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR TXZ156-158-162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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