682
FXUS64 KFWD 011858
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
MAY EXCEED 1".
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THIS MORNING'S WAVE OF PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY SHIFTED EAST OF
THE REGION WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, AIDING IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF I-20, WHERE THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED.
THE MAIN HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WETTING RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ALLOWING FOR SOILS TO GRADUALLY
MOISTEN. AS THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHES,
PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BLOSSOM WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, DRIVING PRECIPITATION EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
THROUGHOUT THE REGION; GRAB THAT LIGHT JACKET IF YOU'RE PLANNING
ON GOING OUT SATURDAY MORNING!
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW COMPARED TO
TODAY AS SUNNY SKIES RETURN TO THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING, HOWEVER,
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
PLACE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WITH A DRYLINE SHARPENING JUST TO OUR WEST. A POTENT JET STREAM
MAXIMUM WILL BE OVERHEAD, ALLOWING FOR STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION. HIGHS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH MVFR IN CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS MOSTLY OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES, HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 21Z. BEYOND 21Z, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
FOR WACO, PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AIRPORT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN THIS EVENING. AS DRY AIR
FILTERS IN, EXPECT THE MVFR TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 02Z.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
WINDS TO REESTABLISH OUT OF THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 75 55 81 / 20 0 0 0
WACO 49 72 51 77 / 50 0 0 0
PARIS 47 72 49 79 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 46 75 51 81 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 75 53 80 / 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 51 77 56 81 / 30 0 0 0
TERRELL 49 75 51 79 / 40 0 0 0
CORSICANA 51 76 53 81 / 60 0 0 0
TEMPLE 49 75 51 79 / 50 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 46 75 48 80 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ156-158-162-174-
175.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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