338
FXUS64 KFWD 022315
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
GORGEOUS SPRING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE REGION. SOME VERY LOCALIZED RADIATIONAL FOG OCCURRED
LAST NIGHT, MAINLY WEST OF DFW. TONIGHT MAY OFFER A REPEAT,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
NO MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT NORTH WINDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TODAY WILL BE THE RULE, VALUES WHICH ARE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. AFTER ANOTHER COOL AND NEARLY CALM NIGHT
TONIGHT, THE RETURN OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY WILL
USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES,
WILL YIELD ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTERLY PATTERN BY LATE
TUESDAY, AS ONE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES, ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE COMPACT UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHILE IT'S POSSIBLE THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL PHASE, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW STAYS BEHIND AND
MEANDERS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE BAJA. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN, THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AFTER A WEEKEND OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL START TO INCREASE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY, AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED. FILTERED
SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY, AS
SWATHS OF STRATUS AND CUMULUS INVADE THE REGION. STEADY SOUTHERLY
WINDS FACILITATED BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WILL
PUMP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER, COUPLED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE NEARBY UPPER
TROUGHS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EURO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF DECENT SURFACE BASED CAPE
DURING THIS PERIOD, COUPLED WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. AS SUCH,
SOME CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT
TIMING, LOCATION, AND HAZARD TYPES FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER.
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO
EASTERN NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND OCCURRING BY WEEK'S END.
NEXT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA OPENS UP AND
APPROACHES THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST
A FEW CUMULUS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND SOME CIRRUS LATER IN THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 01-02Z, THEN INCREASE
TO 10-15KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 16Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 52 78 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 50 79 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 51 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 53 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 56 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 52 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 54 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 52 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 81 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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