181
FXUS64 KFWD 051901
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
201 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING, AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
35.
- A COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY END TO THE WORKWEEK IS FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM STILL SURROUNDS THE
LOCATION, TIMING AND EXTEND OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FAIRLY THICK, AND THIS
HAS PUT A DENT IN THE SOLAR INSOLATION WE MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE
EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT (WHERE
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE PRESENT), SHOULD STILL
CLIMB WELL UP INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER, STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP
OVER THE GREATER DFW AREA, AND THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE MAX
HEATING MAY CURB THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION SOMEWHAT.
ALL THAT SAID, THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PENETRATE THE
I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A NARROW AXIS OF
CONVECTION - PARTICULAR FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX,
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PARIX/SULPHUR SPRINGS AREAS BY 7-8 PM. IN
GENERAL, MAINTAINED THE 20-35% POP COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING,
MAINLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF HEATING. MORE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
MUCAPES ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MODELS IN TERMS OF HOW
FAR SOUTH - AND HOW QUICKLY - THE FRONT WILL PENETRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AND
LARGE, THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW UP AND REMAIN SOMEHWERE NEAR
A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. A BROAD REGION OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUDCOVER SHOULD
FOSTER MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY, WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST BASE OF THIS TROUGH, THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
INTO QUEBEC AND THE U.S. NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL, AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. PUMPS COOL, DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM UP WILL PROCEED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SURFACE
WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH, AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME.
GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY UNEVEN REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT
LEAST LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF LIFT APPEARS TO BE
IMPINGING ON OUR AREA BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, OFFERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS, AND IN
PARTICULAR, THE D10 TAF SITES IN THE 22Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME. WHILE
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DECENT CAP OVER THE AREA,
SOME EROSION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
COUPLED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE
INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO WIDESLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE D10
AREA AFTER 23Z, WITH COVERAGE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN AREAS EAST OF KDFW. FOR NOW, ELECTED TO CARRY VCTS AT DFW
AND DAL, GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIATION TIME AND
ULTIMATE COVERAGE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF D10 BY 02Z.
AN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF STRATUS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT, OWING TO LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS EARLY AS 06Z AT WACO, AND BY 08-10Z AT THE D10 TAF
SITES. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORIES AFTER 16Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 13-17 KNOTS, GUSTING AT TIME IN EXCESS OF 20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT WACO AND THE D10 TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, THE DFW-AREA SITES
WILL SEE A RAPID VEERING OF WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE
22Z-00Z TIME PERIOD. THE WIND SHIFT AT WACO WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
AROUND 14Z, WHEN THE COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THIS LOCATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 76 54 71 / 20 10 10 10
WACO 71 83 58 69 / 10 50 20 30
PARIS 61 72 52 68 / 40 30 10 20
DENTON 57 74 50 70 / 20 0 10 10
MCKINNEY 60 74 52 70 / 30 10 10 10
DALLAS 63 78 56 72 / 20 20 10 10
TERRELL 66 77 54 69 / 20 30 20 10
CORSICANA 70 82 59 71 / 20 60 20 30
TEMPLE 72 85 58 70 / 10 50 20 40
MINERAL WELLS 57 77 49 70 / 10 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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