758
FXUS64 KFWD 060003
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
703 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTH TX
THIS EVENING, AND TO CENTRAL TX ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
- A COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY END TO THE WORKWEEK IS FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM STILL SURROUNDS THE
LOCATION, TIMING AND EXTEND OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS FAIRLY THICK, AND THIS
HAS PUT A DENT IN THE SOLAR INSOLATION WE MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE
EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT (WHERE
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE PRESENT), SHOULD STILL
CLIMB WELL UP INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS, HOWEVER, STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE CAP
OVER THE GREATER DFW AREA, AND THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE MAX
HEATING MAY CURB THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION SOMEWHAT.
ALL THAT SAID, THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PENETRATE THE
I-20/I-30 CORRIDORS BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A NARROW AXIS OF
CONVECTION - PARTICULAR FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX,
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PARIS/SULPHUR SPRINGS AREAS BY 7-8 PM.
IN GENERAL, MAINTAINED THE 20-35% POP COVERAGE FOR THIS EVENING,
MAINLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF HEATING. MORE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
MUCAPES ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A FEW OF THE STORMS ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST AMONG THE MODELS IN TERMS OF HOW
FAR SOUTH - AND HOW QUICKLY - THE FRONT WILL PENETRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AND
LARGE, THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW UP AND REMAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
A KILLEEN TO PALESTINE LINE BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. A BROAD REGION OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
FOSTER MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY, WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST BASE OF THIS TROUGH, THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
INTO QUEBEC AND THE U.S. NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL, AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. PUMPS COOL, DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM UP WILL PROCEED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SURFACE
WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH, AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME.
GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY UNEVEN REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AT
LEAST LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOT OF LIFT APPEARS TO BE
IMPINGING ON OUR AREA BY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, OFFERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AN ISOLATED STORM HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF KDAL IN THE LAST 20
MINUTES, AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS THROUGH 01Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
NEARBY LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES ENE AT 30 MPH. STORM CHANCES HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER THE OTHER D10 TAF SITES THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH, WITH ALL MENTION OF VCTS REMOVED WITH THE 00Z
ISSUANCE. N/NW WINDS OF 8-13 KTS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE
RETURN OF MVFR TO THE REGION, ARRIVING AT KACT AROUND 05Z WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING AROUND 10Z. FOR D10
SITES, MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE AROUND 09-10Z WITH
INTERMITTENT LOW-END MVFR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR LATE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR D10 AND
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WACO.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 76 55 72 / 30 20 10 20
WACO 67 79 59 71 / 20 30 10 30
PARIS 57 71 53 71 / 40 30 10 10
DENTON 54 73 51 72 / 20 10 0 10
MCKINNEY 58 73 53 72 / 30 20 10 10
DALLAS 61 78 57 74 / 30 20 10 20
TERRELL 61 76 54 71 / 40 40 10 20
CORSICANA 67 81 59 73 / 20 50 20 30
TEMPLE 68 84 58 71 / 20 30 10 30
MINERAL WELLS 55 77 50 72 / 10 10 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...GORDON
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