045
FXUS64 KFWD 061036
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS TODAY, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL.
- A COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY END TO THE WORKWEEK IS FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AS OF MIDNIGHT, AND WILL MOVE ENTIRELY SOUTH OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY, AND
THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, MOSTLY IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LINGERING ASCENT NEAR THE STALLED 850MB
FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT ~18 HOURS, AND THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITHOUT A MORE FOCUSED
LIFTING MECHANISM AND AN ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SYNOPTIC ASCENT, MUCH OF THE 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE STILL PRESENT
ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE WILL LIKELY GO UNREALIZED. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED HAIL-PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY, BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
CONVECTION WITHIN THE CWA APPEARS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
AS THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ABSENT FROM THE AREA THOUGH, AS ZONAL FLOW AND
MODEST HEIGHT RISES PREVAIL ALOFT. OVERALL, IT'LL BE A QUITE
PLEASANT DAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY, AND MODEST LIFT DUE
TO AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS MOISTURE RECOVERY
RESUMES. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN RETURNING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOLLOWING THE MIDWEEK COOLDOWN,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMUP WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND HIGHS SHOULD
RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER VARIABLE IN TERMS OF THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLUTION BEYOND DAY 3, AND CAN BE CHARACTERIZED WITH BELOW
NORMAL PREDICTABILITY THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE.
HOWEVER, A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT ANOTHER
FRONTAL INTRUSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WHICH WILL OFFER THE NEXT CHANCE AT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WOULD ALSO
RESULT IN KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 80S TO BEGIN
NEXT WEEK SHOULD THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MATERIALIZE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 2 KFT WILL PERSIST
AT D10 AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS BEFORE SOME EROSION AND
LIFTING OF THE LOW DECK TO VFR OCCURS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CIG
HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL AT WACO, WITH THE AIRPORT LIKELY NOT
BECOMING VFR UNTIL AFTER 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
TODAY, BUT WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE DISORGANIZED WITH
COVERAGE OF LESS THAN 30%, WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF INCLUSION OF VCSH FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FUTURE AMENDMENT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOW DECK WILL BE ABLE TO FILL BACK
IN SUFFICIENTLY TO RESULT IN CIGS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY ENOUGH SIGNAL SUCH THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS IS WARRANTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 53 74 58 / 20 0 0 0
WACO 69 57 73 59 / 20 0 0 10
PARIS 66 51 71 51 / 40 10 0 0
DENTON 69 49 73 52 / 20 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 70 51 73 54 / 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 71 55 75 58 / 20 0 0 0
TERRELL 71 53 72 55 / 30 0 0 0
CORSICANA 69 57 74 59 / 30 0 0 10
TEMPLE 71 57 73 59 / 30 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 70 49 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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