137
FXUS64 KFWD 061906
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
206 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS TODAY, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND AS OUR
NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY EXITED OUR SOUTHERN CWA BOUNDARY AS
OF 2 PM, LEAVING ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNDERNEATH
NORTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. LINGERING CLOUDS AND
THOSE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THIS AFTERNOON FAIRLY COOL,
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM SW TO NE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A PASSING MINUTE DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
BOTH A LACK OF MEANINGFUL AFTERNOON HEATING, AND THAT THE BETTER
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR NORTH. ANY STORM
THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG
WITH A HAIL THREAT AS LATEST RAP ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UP TO 1000
J/KG MUCAPE AND ~7-7.5 DEGREE LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH WE'LL CONTINUE
TO CARRY A CHANCE FOR STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THE REST OF TODAY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE OVER THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY, EVENTUALLY CULMINATING IN THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TOMORROW, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PEAK IN THE
LOW-MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
WELL TO OUR WEST, A LAGGING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN AND
BECOME A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST U.S.-MEXICO BORDER.
THIS LOW WILL PERSIST IN ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, MORE MEANINGFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
RAMP UP ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND
7.5-8 DEGC/KM LAPSE RATES). ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE, POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL. HOWEVER, BOTH THE
SEVERE THREAT AND EXACT COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHICH MAY
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WILL PROVIDE MORE
DETAILS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ULTIMATELY COME
TO AN END BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR CLOSER TO 20-21Z FOR D10
AND CLOSER TO 23Z FOR ACT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. WHILE D10 SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THE REST OF TODAY, ACT WILL HAVE A WINDOW THROUGH 21Z TO
OBSERVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF FILLING IN OVER D10 ARE
NOW LOW ENOUGH TO TAKE OUT OF THE D10 TAFS. ACT HAS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE (30-40%), AND HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A TEMPO GROUP
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON ANY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AND WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 55 75 58 / 20 0 0 10
WACO 66 57 74 59 / 30 0 10 20
PARIS 64 51 72 52 / 40 10 0 0
DENTON 65 51 73 53 / 10 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 66 52 74 56 / 20 0 0 10
DALLAS 67 56 75 59 / 20 0 0 10
TERRELL 65 55 73 56 / 40 10 0 10
CORSICANA 66 57 76 60 / 40 0 0 10
TEMPLE 67 58 74 59 / 30 0 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 67 50 72 53 / 10 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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