279
FXUS64 KFWD 070004
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND AS OUR
NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETELY EXITED OUR SOUTHERN CWA BOUNDARY AS
OF 2 PM, LEAVING ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNDERNEATH
NORTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. LINGERING CLOUDS AND
THOSE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THIS AFTERNOON FAIRLY COOL,
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM SW TO NE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS A PASSING MINUTE DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
BOTH A LACK OF MEANINGFUL AFTERNOON HEATING, AND THAT THE BETTER
LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS CONFINED TO OUR NORTH. ANY STORM
THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG
WITH A HAIL THREAT AS LATEST RAP ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UP TO 1000
J/KG MUCAPE AND ~7-7.5 DEGREE LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH WE'LL CONTINUE
TO CARRY A CHANCE FOR STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THE REST OF TODAY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE OVER THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY, EVENTUALLY CULMINATING IN THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TOMORROW, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PEAK IN THE
LOW-MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
WELL TO OUR WEST, A LAGGING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN AND
BECOME A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST U.S.-MEXICO BORDER.
THIS LOW WILL PERSIST IN ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY, MORE MEANINGFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
RAMP UP ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE
INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND
7.5-8 DEGC/KM LAPSE RATES). ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
ELEVATED IN NATURE, POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL. HOWEVER, BOTH THE
SEVERE THREAT AND EXACT COVERAGE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHICH MAY
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WILL PROVIDE MORE
DETAILS AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ROUND THE BASE OF THE PARENT
LONGWAVE TROUGH. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE
EXITING TO OUR EAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ULTIMATELY COME
TO AN END BY MONDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO OUR SOUTH AND UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE METROPLEX HAVE
ALREADY WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE/SHIFT EAST SHORTLY. MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING AT DFW, DAL,
AND GKY ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH
VFR THEN PREVAILING ACROSS THE D10 TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT
SPEEDS WILL EASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS AFFECTING KACT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN LATER TONIGHT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER, WHILE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 55 75 58 81 / 0 0 10 10
WACO 57 74 59 79 / 0 10 20 60
PARIS 51 72 52 79 / 10 0 0 10
DENTON 51 73 53 81 / 0 0 10 10
MCKINNEY 52 74 56 80 / 0 0 10 10
DALLAS 56 75 59 82 / 0 0 10 20
TERRELL 55 73 56 80 / 10 0 10 20
CORSICANA 57 76 60 80 / 0 0 10 50
TEMPLE 58 74 59 79 / 0 10 20 70
MINERAL WELLS 50 72 53 81 / 0 0 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...12
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