485
FXUS64 KFWD 071029
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
529 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE.
- WARMER AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ACTING TO ERODE A DECK OF POST-FRONTAL STRATUS THIS
MORNING. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WE'LL
MAINTAIN A CANOPY OF STEADILY THINNING CIRRUS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYTIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A STEADY STREAM OF MID-CLOUD AND PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERY PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA ARE LESS THAN 10%, BUT AT LEAST A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LAMPASAS TO HEARNE LINE TODAY.
FOR AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH, IT SHOULD BE A QUITE PLEASANT AND
RAIN-FREE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE
OF 5-10 MPH. MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RESUME EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED WITH A MOIST OPEN WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE FAIRLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM
EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WILL NOT
NECESSARILY REACH MAXIMUM COVERAGE DURING TRADITIONAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF
AN EJECTING UPPER LOW WITHIN FAST SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE ACCESS TO A GREAT DEAL OF
INSTABILITY, BUT COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS
SMALL HAIL DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CHANCES
REMAINING SOUTH OF I-20. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AID FROM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
A FURTHER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY, BUT LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL LARGELY BE ABSENT WITHOUT THE
PRESENCE OF A FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY, BUT THIS MAY BE THE LESS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITHOUT BETTER ASCENT PRESENT. ON SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE
DAYTIME WHICH WILL OFFER BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF 30-50%
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL WARM SECTOR PARAMETER SPACE
PRECEDING THE FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION, BUT THE WEST/EAST BOUNDARY ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY-
PARALLEL FLOW MAKES THIS SETUP FAR FROM IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
WHILE A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE LATE WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COOL AS THE 60S AND LOWER 70S THAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK. IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 80S
FOLLOWING UPPER 80S OR 90S OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A FAIRLY QUICK
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AT D10 AIRPORTS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
THE EROSION OF A POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL STILL TAKE A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO CLEAR WACO, WHERE
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. ALL PRECIP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT A BKN MID/HIGH
DECK WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 59 80 64 / 0 0 20 30
WACO 75 59 78 64 / 0 10 50 40
PARIS 73 53 78 59 / 0 0 10 30
DENTON 74 56 80 61 / 0 0 10 30
MCKINNEY 75 56 79 62 / 0 0 10 30
DALLAS 76 60 81 64 / 0 10 20 30
TERRELL 74 57 78 62 / 0 10 20 30
CORSICANA 75 59 80 65 / 0 10 50 40
TEMPLE 74 60 78 65 / 0 10 50 50
MINERAL WELLS 74 55 79 60 / 0 10 20 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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