202
FXUS64 KFWD 071926
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
226 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE.
- WARMER AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY TRAIPSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CULMINATE IN A RETURN
TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY STAYING
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM SW TO NE MAINLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS COUNTIES, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS DENSE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN
NORTH TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ORIGINATING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING ARE NOW BEGINNING TO BREACH MILLS/LAMPASAS
COUNTIES, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT AS IT IS MOVING INTO A DRIER
ENVIRONMENT.
MOST PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE
ACTIVITY IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST IS THE RESULT OF THE DENSE SPREAD OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THESE LIGHT ECHOES, MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK. WILL
ADVERTISE A LOW 10% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON IN A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES AS I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ONE OR TWO RAINDROPS ON THE SIDEWALKS.
WELL TO OUR WEST, AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CHURNING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOMORROW, EXPECT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE ADVECTION REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP OUT
AHEAD OF THIS INCOMING UPPER LOW. WITH LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE DAY
FRIDAY, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE MOST
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER OVERALL
SEEMS UNLIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ANY MORE OF THE
ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
7-7.5 DEGC/KM LAPSE RATES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL TEXAS, IN
ADDITION TO SOUTHWARD-MOVING STORMS ORIGINATING OFF OF THE COLD
FRONT UP IN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE SURFACE-BASED
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY, ELEVATED STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO PLENTY OF
MUCAPE, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND MODEST SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH A
HAIL THREAT LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL SHUNT A COLD FRONT
AND ITS ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
UNLIKE THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK, THE TEMPERATURE DROP
BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONT WILL NOT BE MUCH TO "WRITE HOME" ABOUT, WITH
MONDAY HIGHS COMING IN BETWEEN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE AND PARENT TROUGH, PROMOTING
A WARMING TREND WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT
THIS IS UNCERTAIN AND MORE DETAILS WILL BE GLEANED IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND STREAMING VFR CIRRUS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE WINDS RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 01Z FOR D10 AND 04Z FOR ACT. WHILE D10 WILL
REMAIN DRY TODAY, SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MAKE A RUN FOR ACT THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT IS LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE AFTERNOON AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. A
SURGE OF MVFR STRATUS WILL APPROACH AND MOVE OVER ACT JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK, LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR WILL
REMAIN AT D10, THOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD NORTH
TEXAS. SOME CAMS ARE SHOWING SOME EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
EAST/SOUTH OF D10, BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO
JUST KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR NOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 79 64 85 / 10 20 20 10
WACO 58 78 64 83 / 10 40 50 20
PARIS 53 77 59 81 / 0 10 30 10
DENTON 55 79 61 84 / 0 10 20 10
MCKINNEY 57 79 62 84 / 10 20 30 10
DALLAS 61 80 64 86 / 10 20 20 10
TERRELL 57 78 62 83 / 10 30 20 10
CORSICANA 60 80 65 85 / 10 40 40 20
TEMPLE 59 78 65 84 / 10 40 50 30
MINERAL WELLS 54 79 60 85 / 0 20 20 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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