892
FXUS64 KFWD 091055
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BRUSH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT THAT GENERATED YESTERDAY'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THIS MEANS WE'LL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATES SOUTHEAST, CLOSER
TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA AND MAY ATTEMPT TO
ORGANIZE INTO A FEW CLUSTERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE OVERALL
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT STORMS OR
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD BRUSH THE RED RIVER COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT EARLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH WOULD LIKELY BE WEAKENING,
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AND HUMID WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY WHILE
A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF
IT. DAYTIME HEATING, MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALREADY BE ONGOING JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
EARLY SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REST OF THE REGION.
INITIAL STORMS MAY INCLUDE MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. WITH TIME, STORM MERGERS AND COOL POOL INTERACTIONS SHOULD
FAVOR A TRANSITION INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING CLUSTERS. IF THIS
EVOLUTION OCCURS, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1" APPEAR REASONABLE FOR
MANY LOCATIONS, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS (2"+) POSSIBLE WHERE
STORMS TRAIN OR REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS.
A QUIETER AND MORE PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER WEST TEXAS AND WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAIN GLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CONCERNS...VARYING WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CEILINGS
THIS MORNING, THEN AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS EARLY
MORNING, HOWEVER, VARYING CEILINGS, VISIBILITY AND WIND DIRECTION
ARE COMPLICATING FACTORS IN TODAY'S FORECAST.
LAST NIGHT'S THUNDERSTORMS RELEASED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SLOWLY BEEN MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY
HAS NOW TURNED MUCH OF THE DFW METROPLEX TAF SITES OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. FOR WACO, WIND DIRECTION REMAINS SOUTHERLY.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WIND DIRECTION WILL TURN CLOCKWISE
WITH THE PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING FROM 16Z TO
AROUND 22Z. ONCE WINDS REGAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT, EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
LOW CEILINGS ARE NOW IMPACTING KACT AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE VFR RETURNS TO THE REGION.
TONIGHT, LOW CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR
REGION, IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. MVFR IS LOOKING MOST LIKELY,
HOWEVER, GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IMPROVEMENTS TO SUNDAY'S CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY COMMENCE BEYOND 18Z, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 69 84 62 / 0 0 80 70
WACO 85 69 87 64 / 0 0 40 80
PARIS 83 64 78 60 / 10 10 80 60
DENTON 85 68 82 58 / 0 10 80 60
MCKINNEY 86 67 82 60 / 0 10 80 60
DALLAS 87 69 85 62 / 0 0 80 70
TERRELL 84 67 83 62 / 0 0 70 70
CORSICANA 86 69 88 64 / 0 0 50 80
TEMPLE 86 69 88 65 / 10 0 30 80
MINERAL WELLS 87 67 86 58 / 0 0 80 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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