164
FXUS64 KFWD 110625
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
125 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS MORNING'S LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED NON-
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO PUSH AWAY
FROM OUR REGION.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOW
CENTERED OVER LUBBOCK, MOVING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL TO OUR WEST, A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35 WHERE WEAK
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT. THIS
AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECTED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A QUIET AND WARMING PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S BY MID-WEEK, WITH HUMIDITY GRADUALLY INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. DESPITE THE MOISTURE RETURN, MEANINGFUL
LIFT WILL REMAIN LIMITED, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
LOW-END STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES APPROACH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A PERIOD OF MVFR IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES, HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS VFR SKIES RETURN
BY 08Z. POST-FRONTAL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10-13 KTS. FOR WACO, PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
SHORTLY WITH A RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS AFTER TEMPORARILY
EXPERIENCING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
LATER THIS MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LOOKING
LIKELY WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS VFR ONCE AGAIN RETURNS BY 16Z. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY LATE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY EASTERLY THIS
EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 61 82 64 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 76 61 81 63 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 75 55 79 58 / 20 0 0 0
DENTON 77 57 81 61 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 57 81 62 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 77 61 82 64 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 57 80 60 / 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 77 61 82 62 / 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 78 62 83 63 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 56 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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