764
FXUS64 KFWD 111051
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED ACROSS THE BRAZOS
VALLEY AND PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS NOW PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. A REMNANT MCV CONTINUES
TO SPIN JUST SOUTH OF ANDERSON COUNTY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS
AFTERNOON, A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AND INTO EAST TEXAS. IF A STORM DEVELOPS, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE 70S WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO PUSH AWAY
FROM OUR REGION.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOW
CENTERED OVER LUBBOCK, MOVING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL TO OUR WEST, A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35 WHERE WEAK
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT. THIS
AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECTED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A QUIET AND WARMING PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER TEXAS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S BY MID-WEEK, WITH HUMIDITY GRADUALLY INCREASING
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. DESPITE THE MOISTURE RETURN, MEANINGFUL
LIFT WILL REMAIN LIMITED, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
LOW-END STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DEEPENS
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES APPROACH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR SKIES ARE ONGOING AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE D10 AIRSPACE AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR
SKIES AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. FOR NORTH TEXAS, THE MOST
LIKELY WINDOW IS BETWEEN 13-16Z WHILE KACT'S WINDOW IS FROM
15-19Z.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY TODAY,
HOWEVER, A GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 61 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 76 60 81 63 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 77 55 79 59 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 77 56 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 58 82 62 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 78 61 83 65 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 76 58 81 61 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 78 61 83 62 / 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 77 61 82 63 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 56 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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