223
FXUS64 KFWD 111914
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
214 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE BRAZOS
VALLEY AND PARTS OF EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION, LEAVING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN A COOLER POST-
FRONTAL REGIME WITH NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND
LOCALIZED LIFT NEAR THE MCV MAY STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND OUR EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE ENVIRONMENT IS JUST
TOO STABLE AND WEAKLY BUOYANT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF
LIGHTNING, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, AND PERHAPS A WIND GUST OR TWO.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW PATCHES OF SHALLOW
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, MAINLY
WEST OF I-35, WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY COOL TO SATURATION. THE SATURATED LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW WITH DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE IT, SO ANY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE PATCHY AND SHORT-LIVED WITH LIMITED
IMPACTS. TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AND WARMER AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD OVERHEAD AND SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE RETURN WILL STILL BE SHALLOW, AND MEANINGFUL
ASCENT WILL BE LACKING, SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S REGIONWIDE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
KEEPING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS, ALLOWING HUMIDITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
WHILE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. DESPITE
THE BETTER MOISTURE, THE ATMOSPHERE WON'T HAVE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE RAIN. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
THE LACK OF A FOCUSED BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION SUPPRESSED
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
PLAINS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER BY THEN, AND AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THAT SAID, THE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES REMAIN LOW-END (LESS THAN 20%) FOR NOW BECAUSE THE BETTER
FORCING MAY STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MOST PLAUSIBLE WINDOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND NEAR THE RED RIVER, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
CEILINGS NEAR 2-3 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER AND LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 15Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 83 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 59 81 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 54 80 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 56 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 82 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 61 83 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 57 81 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 60 83 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 60 82 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 55 82 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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