260
FXUS64 KFWD 121022
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
522 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, GENERATING A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER,
LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY
SUNNY TODAY, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS. AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE
NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE RIDGE, BUT OUR CWA WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE
MORE THAN THE REMNANT HIGH CLOUDS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE AN UPTICK IN WIND VELOCITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST TO THE BIG COUNTRY, WHICH MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING, BUT
PROBABILITIES OF ANY CONVECTION OVERCOMING THE CAP THIS FAR EAST
ARE SLIM.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, IT MAY
KICK OFF A DRYLINE STORM OR TWO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT CONVECTION
WOULD AGAIN HAVE TO OVERCOME A STOUT CAP TO MAKE IT INTO NORTH
TEXAS. A LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
WINDOW. MORE DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOULD BECOME
KNOWN AS BETTER RESOLUTION DATA IN RECEIVED LATER THIS WEEK, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LOW-END CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN
THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR. WARM WEATHER WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE
UNTIL OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS THUS FAR BEEN CONFINED TO RURAL LOCATIONS,
AND THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT ANY
TAF SITE REMAINS LOW. VFR CAN HENCE BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 82 60 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 80 57 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 83 59 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 82 60 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 84 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 82 58 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 83 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 82 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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