342
FXUS64 KFWD 121826
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
126 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE END
OF THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WITH WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS A
LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN BY FRIDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS 300 HPA FLOW OF 50-80 KNOTS WILL EXTEND
FROM THE BAJA, ACROSS TEXAS, AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING
IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD STILL REMAIN
IN THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FURTHER WEST (ESPECIALLY WEST OF
US-281) WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH LESS,
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S BY FRIDAY. JUST
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS, CLEAR SKIES,
DRY AIR, AND A COMPONENT OF ADIABATIC COMPRESSION FROM SURFACE
FLOW OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU MAY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS
105. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY; IF IT LOOKS TO KEEP FURTHER EAST, AREAS WEST
OF US-281 WILL SEE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT
ON FRIDAY (CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS AT LEAST 100 DEGREES ARE
~5% AS OF NOW).
..SATURDAY
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (5-10%) THAT
ENOUGH OF THE CAP WILL ERODE IN PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE WEST OF
OUR AREA TO GET A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP. WHILE ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL, UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE DRY LINE POSITION, CIN ALOFT
AND DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS MAKE THIS SCENARIO EXCEPTIONALLY
CONDITIONAL. NONETHELESS, THERE IS A WEAK QPF SIGNAL IN A COUPLE
LONG-RANGE MODELS (INCLUDING THE GFS). SHOULD THIS SIGNAL REMAIN,
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE WARRANTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF US-281 SATURDAY EVENING IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
..SUNDAY
BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN CONSENSUS THAT TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY AND TAKE HOLD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. HEIGHT FALLS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY
CONVEYER BELT OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL HELP SHARPEN THE
DRYLINE TO THE WEST BY ADVECTING IN DRY CONTINENTAL AIR AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER OUR AREA CONTINUE TO BRING IN A MUCH MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFF THE GULF. THOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG CAPPING OVER THE
REGION, WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LOOKS TO CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS HOW FAR EAST INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE AS CIN WILL INCREASE
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT FROM THE DRYLINE. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
THIS SET UP, AS AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE EXPECTED DRYLINE
LOCATION WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE US-281 CORRIDOR.
..EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK
THOUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS AT A RANGE WHERE FORECAST
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR SEVERAL
DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OVER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
FURTHERMORE A THE DRYLINE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED CORRIDORS OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT, INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
WHEREVER THEY END UP. THOUGH WHERE EXACTLY IS UNCERTAIN, THERE
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE AN INCREASE IN STORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A CUMULUS FIELD WILL BRING FEW TO SCT SKIES AT 035-050
PERIODICALLY TO TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE OF ~5 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 63 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 60 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 57 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 59 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 61 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 63 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 62 88 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 61 88 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 58 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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