031
FXUS64 KFWD 130530
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1230 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARRIVE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, SOME
OF WHICH HAVE A LOW THREAT FOR BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE PRIMARY FEATURE WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT-
TERM IS AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES. DRY
WEATHER AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND ITS EAST FLANK WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE RED RIVER TODAY. THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT MAY ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON, WITH
THE WARMEST BEING ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE SOME MID
90S WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY
GENERATE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE ZONAL, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL OFFSET THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST TO NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY, WHERE
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE WESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING. A STRONG CAP, HOWEVER, WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR THESE STORMS TO ACHIEVE ANY SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD
PROGRESS THURSDAY NIGHT. A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL BE THE END RESULT
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, AND
SOUTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION WILL SET UP LATE SUNDAY AS THE
NORTHWEST TROUGH BEGINS TO EMERGE IN THE PLAINS, AND DRYLINE
INITIATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY. HEIGHT FALLS WILL COINCIDE WITH
PEAK HEATING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STORMS WOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST, WITH ACTIVITY WANING
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE RED RIVER REGION, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS, AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS USUAL,
MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH POTENTIAL
ROUND OF STORMS WILL BECOME KNOWN LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND
OVERALL QUIET AVIATION WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY, BUT UNTIL THEN,
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 63 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 82 60 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 80 56 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 83 59 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 83 60 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 84 63 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 82 58 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 84 60 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 83 61 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 58 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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