803
FXUS64 KFWD 131834
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
134 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARRIVE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-80S AND LOWER-90S THROUGH THURSDAY. RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS (UPPER-50S AND LOW-60S) SHOULD STILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER-60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST, A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. CLEAR SKIES, LOW BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITY, AND A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES WEST OF US-281 TO
POTENTIALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-90S BOTH DAYS. EAST OF THE US-281
CORRIDOR, BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY (SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S) WILL HELP MODERATE AFTERNOON HIGHS KEEPING THEM IN THE
MID-80S TO LOWER-90S.
THERE HAS BEEN A VERY TRANSIENT AND WEAK SIGNAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SOMEWHERE IN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL AS THE DRY LINE TRENDING FURTHER
WEST WITH RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
..SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE
THE POLAR JET LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH, A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL STILL BRING A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THAT EJECT OFF THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A DRYLINE WILL
BE POSITIONED MORE CLOSELY TO THE US-281 CORRIDOR WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTANTY WITH REGARDS TO DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT PLACEMENT, THE
TIMING OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES, AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION EACH DAY. NONETHELESS, SUFFICIENT SHEAR,
INSTABLILITY AND FORCING (ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT) SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING SUNDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
POTENTIAL STORM MODE/HAZARD TYPE AT THIS TIME, THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE THE RISK FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. AFTER 18Z THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION TO BE SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 91 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 65 89 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 63 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 67 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 66 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 69 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 65 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 66 92 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 65 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 64 90 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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