386
FXUS64 KFWD 140555
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1255 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM, DRY AND BREEZY.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES ARRIVE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR ANOTHER DAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LOWER 90S WERE ACHIEVED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 80S FELT ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THAT A
TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK PERTURBATION ROUNDING THE NORTH FLANK OF THE
RIDGE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE DRYLINE. REMNANT CONVECTION MAY
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT,
BUT A STRONG CAP SHOULD SHUT DOWN THE STORMS BEFORE THE REACH OUR
FORECAST AREA. A WARM AND BREEZY NIGHT CAN OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WAVE, BUT ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE 850MB
TO 700MB LAYER. ABOVE THE CAPPING WARM LAYER, STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND ABOUT 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE MAY LEAD TO A STRONG STORM OR
TWO WITH SMALL HAIL, BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND MINUTE AMOUNTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS, WILL NEED TO GO A TOUCH ABOVE THE NBM NUMBERS AND
ADD SOME 20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET, BUT A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH
(CONTAINING SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES) PROPAGATES SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CONUS. TIMING EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE A
CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST, BUT THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AS AN INITIAL WEAK DISTURBANCE
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA. STORM CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER, BUT 20-30% POPS WILL BE ADDED TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WHERE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE COULD BE SURFACE BASED AND MAY POSE AT
LEAST A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL IGNITE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A SIMILAR
DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY. IN FACT TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING OUR BEST
OVERALL CHANCE FOR STORMS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED WILL SAG SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND STALL FOR A DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF
LULL IN STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM EVENTUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AT THE WEEK'S END OR THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. THOUGH STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK, IT
WILL NOT BE OVER ALL AREAS ALL THE TIME, AND SOME FOLKS WILL MISS
OUT ON CERTAIN DAYS. WE WILL CERTAINLY BE ABLE TO NARROW DOWN
TIMING AND OTHER SPECIFICS AS BETTER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RECEIVED THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTH
DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 15G25KT AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER IN A DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH MAY AFFECT
KACT, BUT CIGS SHOULD SCATTER BEFORE REACHING THE DFW METROPLEX.
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 71 91 71 / 0 0 10 20
WACO 89 69 88 70 / 0 0 10 10
PARIS 85 69 87 69 / 0 0 10 20
DENTON 90 71 90 71 / 0 0 10 20
MCKINNEY 91 71 90 71 / 0 0 10 20
DALLAS 92 71 91 72 / 0 0 10 20
TERRELL 90 69 89 71 / 0 0 10 20
CORSICANA 92 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 90 69 91 69 / 0 0 20 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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