479
FXUS64 KFWD 142347
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING.
- MORE ROBUST RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) RETURN TO THE REGION DAILY
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..TODAY AND TONIGHT
LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF PLENTIFUL SUN AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER-80S INTO THE LOWER-90S. DESPITE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGING
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20
AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ANY CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF INTO THIS AREA WILL BE ELEVATED, AND AS
SUCH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON
THE WARMER SIDE (UPPER-60S AND LOWER-70S) DUE TO 10-15 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..FRIDAY
BY TOMORROW, RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS LOOKS TO DE-
AMPLIFY AS TROUGHING BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT INTO TEXAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FORTUNATELY, A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION
WILL AGAIN INHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-35 AND
NORTH OF I-20. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE RANGING
FROM THE UPPER-80S TO THE MID-90S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT EVEN IF STORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY AND/OR
FRIDAY, THE VAST MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF TOMORROW'S SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE LACK OF ANY
FORCING MECHANISMS AND STRONG CAPPING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN
UPPER-60S/LOWER-70S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER-80S TO THE LOWER-90S.
..SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT TO BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGHING OUT WEST BEGINS TO NUDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO RETURN AS
THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES OVERHEAD, BRINGING 300 HPA
FLOW OF 50-80 KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE, A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN WEST OF THE AREA AS RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. HUMIDITY MAY BECOME OPPRESSIVE AT TIMES
WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE 70S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE UPPER-80S AND LOWER-90S. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION BY
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
SMALL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN ADDITION TO LOW-
LEVEL LIFT IN PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT
HOW MUCH THE CAP WILL ERODE SUNDAY EVENING, MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL RESOLVE SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN QPF,
SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (15-30%
CHANCE).
ON MONDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN
WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTRIBUTED TO
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO EAST TEXAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (30-60% CHANCE). BOTH DAYS, THE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
RANGING FROM 2500 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS SFC TO 500 HPA) WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP TO POTENTIALLY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN EXACT COVERAGE, TIMING, AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREATS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY (THOUGH STILL REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE) DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER-80S DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
..MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME
OWING TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE,
PARTICULARLY WITH THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. OWING TO THE
INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT,
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF AND THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST, AND
SUBTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED
TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS, SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL AGAIN POTENTIALLY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. MORE EXACT DETAILS
WITH REGARDS TO AREAL EXTENT, TIMING, AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE
STRONGER STORMS WILL COME INTO FOCUS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE GUSTS LARGELY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. HOWEVER,
EXPECT INTERMITTENT GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN AND
AROUND D10. GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY FOR TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF D10,
THEREFORE WE HAVE ADDED LLWS TO THE ACT TAF AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
RAGGED SHEET OF LOW-END MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR STRATUS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT VEERED FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP LOWER CEILINGS EAST OF MOST D10 TERMINALS.
TOMORROW WILL BE BREEZY AS WELL, WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN
TODAY.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A DRYLINE IS HELPING
AND WILL HELP DEVELOP SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THERE IS A CHANCE (20-30%) THAT DECAYING CONVECTION
IMPACTS THE BOWIE CORNERPOST THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. THERE IS
A LESS THAN 15% CHANCE OF PRECIP WITHIN D10, SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE
VCSH OR VCTS IN ANY TAFS IN THIS TAF CYCLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 70 90 70 / 0 10 0 10
WACO 89 68 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 85 67 87 69 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 90 68 89 70 / 0 10 0 20
MCKINNEY 91 68 89 70 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 92 71 90 71 / 0 10 0 10
TERRELL 90 67 89 70 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 92 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 90 67 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 90 68 90 68 / 0 10 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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