348
FXUS64 KFWD 150622
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.
- MORE ROBUST RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) RETURN TO THE REGION DAILY
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WHICH GENERATED A SMALL BATCH OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS LAST NIGHT IS SHOVING OFF TO THE EAST, AND
ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION DIED OFF A FEW HOURS AGO. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MEANWHILE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ARIZONA. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION ELEVATED IN NATURE AN SUB-SEVERE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING WARM LAYER AND THE ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SMALL HAIL IN A STORM OR TWO, BUT THE
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL LEAVE MOST AREAS UNAFFECTED. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL OTHERWISE BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 90S ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE VELOCITIES WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PERSISTENT LEE
ROCKIES CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A STRONG CAP, AND THE DRYLINE WELL
OFF TO THE WEST SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY DRY. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST
THROUGH THE CONUS.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL CONTAIN MULTIPLE SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES,
THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF STORMS
LATE SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE, WHICH
SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHEN
STORMS FIRST DEVELOP. THE PRESENCE OF AN EVER-EXISTENT CAP WILL
LIKELY SHUT DOWN SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS BEFORE A STORM OR TWO
FINALLY BREAKS THROUGH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THE NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ASCENT WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, GENERATING ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRYLINE-INDUCED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONGER ASCENT AND A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES, INCLUDING CENTRAL TEXAS WITH AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL HEAD
FOR THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT, AND ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE AXIS OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MOST LIKELY BRINGING OUR BEST RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES AS IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST ZONES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE PLAINS.
IN EACH POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS, MODEST FLOW ALOFT AND GOOD
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TOUGH AND ITS
DISPLACEMENT TO THE NORTH. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE TIME OF YEAR
AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, ITS STILL GOOD TO PLAN ON
OCCASIONAL INTERRUPTIONS IN OUTDOOR EVENTS, AND KEEP A SEVERE
WEATHER PLAN IN PLACE. WHATEVER THE CASE, A BRIEF LULL IN STORM
CHANCES MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT MID RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SYSTEMS WILL BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A DECK OF
LOW CLOUDS THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT / FRIDAY
MORNING PERIOD, THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KACT, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. THE LATEST METARS AT
KACT HAVE INDICATED STRONGER SURFACE WINDS THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED, SO THE INCLUSION OF LLWS HAS BEEN REMOVED. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z FRIDAY WITH FREQUENT 25-30 KT GUSTS
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS MAY
OCCUR 00-03Z THIS EVENING, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESTART THE GUSTY CONDITIONS BY 16/06Z. OTHERWISE,
ISOLATED, ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN AREA TAFS AT
THIS TIME, SO WILL STICK WITH VCSH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 91 71 91 73 / 10 20 0 0
WACO 88 70 88 72 / 0 10 0 10
PARIS 87 70 86 70 / 10 20 0 0
DENTON 90 71 89 73 / 10 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 90 71 90 72 / 10 20 0 0
DALLAS 91 72 91 73 / 10 20 0 0
TERRELL 89 71 89 71 / 0 10 0 0
CORSICANA 90 71 90 74 / 0 10 0 0
TEMPLE 90 70 90 74 / 0 10 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 91 69 90 71 / 20 20 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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