046
FXUS64 KFWD 161025
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE ROBUST RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) RETURN TO THE REGION DAILY
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR MID TO LATE WEEK BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY EAST THROUGH NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WOULD BE AN UPTICK IN WIND GUST VELOCITIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DECAYING CONVECTION, OTHERWISE JUST A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES CAN
BE EXPECTED. THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS AN UPPER TROUGH
NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND KEEP THE NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE PLAINS. ANOTHER WARM AN BREEZY DAY WILL
BE THE RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FRIDAY'S NUMBERS DUE TO THINNER CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DRYLINE STORM OR TWO TO WATCH
OFF TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING, THOUGH A STRONG CAP AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY WILL SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION BEFORE AFFECTING OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AN INFLUX OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
BEFORE PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING,
GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. COVERAGE MAY BE
LOW, BUT ANY STORM ABLE TO OVERCOME THE PERSISTENT CAP WILL TAP
INTO AN UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF
PRETTY FAST AFTER SUNSET AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NORTHEAST
AND INSTABILITY WANES.
A SIMILAR SET-UP WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS, THOUGH IT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND
HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY COMPARED TO THE SUNDAY SYSTEM.
THE RESULT WILL BE A FARTHER SOUTH EXTENSION OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND GENERALLY HIGHER POPS AREA-WIDE. NOT ALL WILL BE
AFFECTED, BUT THE ODDS ARE A LITTLE BETTER THAN SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY, BUT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS FINALLY ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED DRYLINE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED, WITH THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS, MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY. IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS, IT WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORMS LINED UP ALONG THE FRONT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEING EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THURSDAY'S CONVECTION MAY BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH WILL BE STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST. THE
FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH, HOWEVER, DRAGGING SHOWERS AND STORMS
BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MID RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL LIKELY KEEP OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KACT THROUGH 15-16Z, BUT ARE
STRUGGLING TO SPREAD MUCH FARTHER NORTH AT THE MOMENT. THAT SAID,
PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS REACHING THE METROPLEX IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A TEMPO MVFR GROUP 12-15Z IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AFTER 15Z, GIVING WAY TO
VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONGER
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MVFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
REACHING KACT 17/07Z AND THE METROPLEX 17/09Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 91 73 90 75 / 0 10 20 20
WACO 88 73 88 75 / 0 10 20 20
PARIS 87 71 87 73 / 0 10 20 20
DENTON 89 74 89 76 / 0 10 20 20
MCKINNEY 90 72 89 75 / 0 10 20 20
DALLAS 91 74 91 76 / 0 0 20 20
TERRELL 89 72 90 75 / 0 0 20 20
CORSICANA 90 75 91 77 / 0 10 20 20
TEMPLE 90 75 90 77 / 0 10 20 20
MINERAL WELLS 89 71 88 73 / 0 0 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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