587
FXUS64 KFWD 171843
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
143 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM, BREEZY, AND
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH DEEPENS AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVERHEAD. LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN A
STEADY SOUTHERLY FETCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE
RICHER GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO ATTEMPT DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY
BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM FWD
CONFIRMS A STOUT CAP REMAINS IN PLACE, WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS AND KEEP ANY ISOLATED STORM THAT DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP ELEVATED RATHER THAN SURFACE-BASED. STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS, WHILE THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD BE LOWER GIVEN THE LIMITED SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND INHIBITION STRENGTHENS.
MONDAY WILL BRING A MORE MEANINGFUL, ALTHOUGH STILL CONDITIONAL,
SEVERE-WEATHER SETUP AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS AND PULLS THE DRYLINE FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
WARM SECTOR REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM, HUMID, AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CAP WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN STORM COVERAGE, WITH THE BEST
INITIATION POTENTIAL FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEFORE ANY STORMS MOVE EAST TOWARD THE I-35
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED, BUT ANY SUSTAINED STORM WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. A STORM OR TWO
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WOULD ALSO ENCOUNTER A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET, WHICH MAY SUPPORT A LOCALIZED INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN, WITH A DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS PLACING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BENEATH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A
TRANSITION FROM THE CONDITIONAL, ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL THAT
HAS DOMINATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD TO A MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM REGIME THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE IDENTIFYING WHICH FEATURES PROVIDE THE
STRONGEST FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH DAY, AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS
FROM A DRYLINE/SHORTWAVE-DRIVEN SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN LATE MONDAY TO
A FRONTAL AND EVENTUALLY SURFACE BOUNDARY-DRIVEN RAIN AND STORM
REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING MAY
CONTINUE EAST INTO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER INHIBITION AND LESS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. STORMS MAY STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE
EVENING, PARTICULARLY IF ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE DISCRETE OR SEMI-
DISCRETE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT, CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP DETERMINE WHERE THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE FOR RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
TUESDAY. THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY MAY BE A BLEND OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND PRIOR STORM OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON MONDAY NIGHTS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
BY TUESDAY, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG
THE ADVANCING FRONT, SUPPORTING A BROADER CORRIDOR OF STORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS, WHILE THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL DEPEND ON
FRONTAL TIMING AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BUILD AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
WHERE THE DEEPER ASCENT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM MIDWEEK INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGHING LINGERS TO OUR
WEST AND THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS NEAR CENTRAL TEXAS. PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND A MOIST POST-FRONTAL/OVERRUNNING REGIME, SUPPORTING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK.
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LOW IN MANY AREAS, BUT THE
THREAT FOR RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER SOIL LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED.
RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS, WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS, PERIODIC RAIN, AND LINGERING FRONTAL
INFLUENCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE METROPLEX
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY, THOUGH A FEW BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE
VICINITY OF KAFW, KFTW, AND KGKY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. LIGHT
RADAR ECHOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE, AND THE
TAFS WILL REMAIN DRY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20
KT AND GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY ONLY A
MODEST DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY 07-08Z ACROSS THE
METROPLEX AND CLOSER TO 06Z AT KACT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR
AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS MIXING INCREASES, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BETTER
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE METROPLEX NEAR THE DRYLINE, SO NO SHRA/TSRA MENTION IS NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 90 74 88 / 20 20 10 60
WACO 75 89 75 87 / 20 20 20 60
PARIS 73 87 72 84 / 20 30 30 70
DENTON 75 89 75 86 / 20 20 10 70
MCKINNEY 75 90 74 86 / 20 20 20 70
DALLAS 76 91 74 89 / 20 20 10 60
TERRELL 75 90 73 87 / 20 20 20 60
CORSICANA 77 91 76 90 / 20 20 20 60
TEMPLE 77 91 76 89 / 20 20 20 60
MINERAL WELLS 73 89 72 86 / 10 20 10 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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