220
FXUS64 KFWD 181016
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
516 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, BUT
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT AFFECTED
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY EVENING HAVE MOVED OUT OF OUR
AREA INTO EAST TEXAS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY, SURFACE OBS AND AREA RADARS SHOW THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ HAS KICKED INTO GEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
UP TO 50 KNOTS AT 3K FT PER THE KFWS VAD WIND PROFILE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. THE LLJ IS ALSO BRINGING A SURGE OF
LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BLANKET MOST OF
THE AREA UNTIL BREAKING UP BY MIDDAY, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARM,
HUMID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. PRECIP CHANCES FOR
TODAY LOOK QUITE LOW AS MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND FORCING STAY
WELL TO OUR NORTH. EVEN SO, MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH A PWAT
OF 1.87 INCHES ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING, SO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM COULD POTENTIALLY POP UP.
MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HOWEVER, WILL WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. LATEST MODELS/CAMS SHOW THE
FRONT ARRIVING INTO MONTAGUE COUNTY IN THE 12-15Z TIMEFRAME
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN REACHING THE METROPLEX AROUND 18-20Z BEFORE
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY 00Z. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
HIGH CAPE/WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH TIME TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
OVERALL PATTERN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, FREQUENT EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD, AND STALLED/GRADUALLY WASHING OUT
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY HIGH DAILY RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOW MUCH LOWER CAPE AND CONTINUED WEAK
SHEAR, SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS SHIFTING TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
LATEST MODEL QPF TOTALS ALONG WITH WPC SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS RANGING FROM 1 INCH IN NORTHWEST TEXAS TO AS MUCH
AS 5 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SHOULD THESE RAINFALL
TOTALS PAN OUT, THEY WOULD PUT A BIG DENT IN THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
AFTER 01Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS ARRIVING 06-09Z AT ALL
AIRPORTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 74 87 68 / 20 40 80 70
WACO 88 75 87 69 / 10 20 70 70
PARIS 87 73 83 66 / 20 30 90 70
DENTON 89 75 86 65 / 20 50 90 70
MCKINNEY 89 74 86 66 / 20 40 80 70
DALLAS 91 75 88 68 / 20 40 80 70
TERRELL 89 73 87 68 / 10 30 80 70
CORSICANA 91 76 89 71 / 10 30 80 70
TEMPLE 90 76 89 70 / 10 20 70 70
MINERAL WELLS 88 73 87 64 / 20 40 90 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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