525
FXUS64 KFWD 191211
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TODAY, HOWEVER AN OVERNIGHT MCS WELL
TO OUR SOUTH HAS SHIFTED THINGS UP A BIT. SINCE WE ARE ON THE FAR
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS, MOST OF THE AREA ALONG/EAST OF I-35
IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LOCALIZED AREA OF MID-AND UPPER-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS HELPING KEEP A LID ON ANY EARLY-MORNING PRE-
FRONTAL DEEP CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS IN NORTH TEXAS THAT THE EVENING
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. THE 12Z FWD RAOB SOUNDING INDICATES A
STRONG CAP RESIDING OVER THE REGION THAT SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS WELL. AS THE MCSS CIRRUS CANOPY MOVES EAST, IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY TODAY.
WE'RE WATCHING A COLD FRONT AND/OR STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL
SERVE AS THE MAIN TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. IT
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME ANY INHIBITION,
PARTICULARLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL FORECAST
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERE THREATS HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH,
BUT SMALL-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL CAUSE SOME AREAS TO BE
RELATIVELY PRECIP-FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY, DESPITE WIDESPREAD
STORMS ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
LAST 2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS INDICATIVE OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION. A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS
INDICATED ON BOTH THE FWS AND GRK VAD WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WHILE RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER TO OUR NORTH, A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
OKLAHOMA WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY SUNRISE AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS BENEATH A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH MIDDAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS
TO VEER AND PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES
THE BULK OF THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX, WITH A
WEAKER LINE EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT WE'LL HAVE SOME CAPPING AND TIME OF DAY WOULD
RESULT IN A MINIMUM IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
METROPLEX. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WOULD THEN BE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHEN STRONGER HEATING RESULTS IN MORE
INSTABILITY. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE JUST BRINGS A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALL THE WAY THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WITH NO GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDDAY AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SOUTH
OF I-20 INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE IT'S DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE EXACT SCENARIO THAT WILL PLAY
OUT, GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO THE NORTH, STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND AVAILABILITY OF 3000+J/KG OF MUCAPE, WE'LL LEAN
TOWARD THIS LINE OF STORMS MAINTAINING SOME INTENSITY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND APPROACHES
I-20 THROUGH MIDDAY. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
SPREADING OUT OF MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STORMS TODAY. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS VERY LOW COMPARED TO OUR LAST FEW SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HELD IN CHECK WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. WE'LL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT AND THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX BY
LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STALLED OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL, MAINLY IN CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY, WE'LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH POPS ONLY AROUND 20%. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO WEST TEXAS WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH PWS IN THE 1.7-1.9"
RANGE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE DAY WE SEE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS TIME,
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOST AREAS PICKING UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN, BUT SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUING TO FEATURE SLOW MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCES WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PW
VALUES JUST SHY OF 2 INCHES, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
PRETTY LOW DURING THIS TIME, BUT THE THREAT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL INCREASE BY THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY TODAY. AN OVERNIGHT MCS WELL TO OUR SOUTH HAS HELPED BRING
IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DESCENT WHICH WILL SQUASH
STORM CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE THIS, A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WE HAVE
OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE VCSH INTO THE TAFS FOR SIMPLICITY'S SAKE TO
NOT DROWN OUT THE MAIN FORECAST MESSAGE BELOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO IGNITE ALONG A COLD FRONT AND/OR
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IT SHOULD START TO ENCROACH ON D10
IN THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED SLOW-DOWN OF THE FRONT
INVOF D10 AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCS TO OUR SOUTH, THUNDERSTORM
TIMING TODAY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. WE NUDGED THE TIMING BACK AN HOUR
COMPARED TO OUR EARLIER FORECASTS, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO ASSESS TIMING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. WE GENERALLY EXPECT MOST
OF THE STORMS TO MOVE SOUTH/EAST OF D10 BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MCS WILL HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON ACT/CENTRAL TEXAS,
WHERE WE MOVED BACK THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HOURS COMPARED TO OUR
EARLIER FORECASTS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS/ACT, BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT THUNDER IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 64 80 67 / 90 50 20 50
WACO 84 66 81 68 / 90 90 20 50
PARIS 81 63 77 66 / 90 40 30 40
DENTON 80 62 78 65 / 90 40 20 50
MCKINNEY 81 63 81 66 / 90 40 20 50
DALLAS 82 65 80 68 / 90 50 20 50
TERRELL 82 64 81 66 / 90 60 20 50
CORSICANA 86 65 80 70 / 90 80 30 50
TEMPLE 86 66 80 69 / 80 90 20 60
MINERAL WELLS 83 62 78 64 / 90 50 20 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DUNN/BONNETTE
LONG TERM....DUNN
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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