692
FXUS64 KFWD 201832
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
132 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME, ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY LIES BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS,
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
IMMEDIATE AREA. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT FAR OFF, HOWEVER,
AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO IS ALREADY KICKING
OFF AN AXIS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
PROVIDING THE STIMULUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY.
USING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS,
INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH SCATTERED,
MOSTLY LIGHT, ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING
LIFT FROM THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL RAMP UP IN OUR WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, EXPANDING
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT, MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
AMOUNTS BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS FOR LATE MAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S BOTH
DAYS. ENJOY THE COOL, WET WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED WITHIN A TROUGHY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THIS WON'T RESULT IN AN ALL OUT WASHOUT, THIS
PERSISTENT "BAGGY" PATTERN WILL CREATE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF
THURSDAY'S SHORTWAVE, THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL UNFOLD ON SATURDAY, AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WHILE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT ON THIS SCENARIO, THIS TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, AND EVOLVE INTO A
WEAK CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY. PERSISTENT LIFT AND THE PRESENCE OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL YIELD MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WITHIN THIS WINDOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WHEN LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEAR MAXIMIZED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST IN OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES SATURDAY-MONDAY, AND A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING EXISTS IN THIS REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW,
OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THAT SAID, SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
THESE HAZARDS WILL NEED TO BE KEPT IN MIND WHEN PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THROUGH MONDAY.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE EXHIBITS LIMITED AGREEMENT BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL LEAD TO AN ONGOING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN, A
TOTAL WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HELP RETARD ANY MAJOR
TEMPERATURE SURGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF
CLOUDY WEATHER AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN WARM, HUMID DAYS AND
MILD NIGHTS. BY AND LARGE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EACH DAY, WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE MAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AT MIDDAY WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND RESULTANT MIXING THAT
IS COMMON FOR MID MAY. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT FROM 18Z TO
21Z, WITH THE D10 TAF SITES AND WACO ALL EXPERIENCING VFR
CONDITIONS BY 22-23Z. FURTHER CLEARING SHOULD PROCEED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WILL REVERSE, HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT,
WITH RENEWED MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE BY 09-10Z. COMPARED
TO EARLIER RUNS, THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN D10 AND AT WACO TOMORROW
MORNING. THUS, OMITTED ANY LOW CEILINGS IN THE LATEST TAFS DURING
THE 10-14Z PERIOD TOMORROW, THOUGH IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOME PATCHY IFR COULD STILL FORM.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT, PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PORTIONS OF D10 COULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS 11-12Z TOMORROW, BUT DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE A TEMPO SHRA GROUP INTO THE DFW AREA TAFS BY 14Z, WHEN
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
GREATER. DON'T BELIEVE COVERAGE OF TSRA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT INCLUSION OF THUNDER IN ANY OF THE TAFS PRIOR TO 18Z, BUT
DID GO AHEAD AND MENTION VCTS AT DFW STARTING 17Z AND CONTINUING
ON THROUGH 00Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A TAD VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT, DUE TO A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN GENERAL, BELIEVE THE LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLIY FLOW REGIME WE'VE EXPERIENCE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID, THE WINDS SHOULD VEER OVER TIME, RESULTING IN EASTERLY, AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY CONDITIONS IN THE D10 AREA AND WACO FROM
AROUND 10Z ONWARD THROUGH 18Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 78 66 85 / 50 80 50 20
WACO 67 79 66 83 / 50 90 50 40
PARIS 65 76 64 81 / 50 90 80 30
DENTON 64 78 64 84 / 60 80 50 20
MCKINNEY 66 77 65 83 / 60 90 60 20
DALLAS 67 79 66 85 / 50 80 60 30
TERRELL 66 78 65 83 / 50 90 70 30
CORSICANA 70 81 68 85 / 60 90 60 40
TEMPLE 68 80 67 85 / 50 80 50 40
MINERAL WELLS 63 78 62 84 / 50 80 30 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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