704
FXUS64 KFWD 210555
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1255 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME, ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY LIES BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS,
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE PROVIDING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
IMMEDIATE AREA. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT FAR OFF, HOWEVER,
AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO IS ALREADY KICKING
OFF AN AXIS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
PROVIDING THE STIMULUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY.
USING A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS,
INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH SCATTERED,
MOSTLY LIGHT, ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING
LIFT FROM THE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL RAMP UP IN OUR WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, EXPANDING
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT, MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
AMOUNTS BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS FOR LATE MAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S BOTH
DAYS. ENJOY THE COOL, WET WEATHER WHILE YOU CAN!
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED WITHIN A TROUGHY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THIS WON'T RESULT IN AN ALL OUT WASHOUT, THIS
PERSISTENT "BAGGY" PATTERN WILL CREATE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF
THURSDAY'S SHORTWAVE, THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL UNFOLD ON SATURDAY, AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WHILE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT ON THIS SCENARIO, THIS TROUGH
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, AND EVOLVE INTO A
WEAK CLOSED LOW BY SUNDAY. PERSISTENT LIFT AND THE PRESENCE OF
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL YIELD MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WITHIN THIS WINDOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EXISTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WHEN LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEAR MAXIMIZED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST IN OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES SATURDAY-MONDAY, AND A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING EXISTS IN THIS REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW,
OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THAT SAID, SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
THESE HAZARDS WILL NEED TO BE KEPT IN MIND WHEN PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THROUGH MONDAY.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE EXHIBITS LIMITED AGREEMENT BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL LEAD TO AN ONGOING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN, A
TOTAL WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HELP RETARD ANY MAJOR
TEMPERATURE SURGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF
CLOUDY WEATHER AND RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN WARM, HUMID DAYS AND
MILD NIGHTS. BY AND LARGE, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EACH DAY, WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE MAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES TONIGHT, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO MONITOR DUE TO HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, SO
WILL WATCH SURFACE OBS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND TO INCLUDE EARLIER
MVFR ONSET THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. STORM TIMING IS ALSO SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN TOMORROW. HAVE USED VCSH TO HIGHLIGHT TIMES WHERE
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE, AND USED TEMPO/FM GROUPS TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THE TIMES OF GREATEST RISK. CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE
BY TOMORROW MORNING ONCE THESE STORMS DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) THIS TAF PERIOD BUT HIGHLY VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. HAVE GONE WITH APPROXIMATE MEAN FLOW FOR PREVAILING
FLOW BUT ANTICIPATE ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 65 84 67 / 70 60 10 60
WACO 78 66 84 68 / 50 30 30 40
PARIS 77 65 81 64 / 40 80 10 50
DENTON 76 63 83 65 / 80 50 10 60
MCKINNEY 78 65 84 66 / 80 70 10 50
DALLAS 79 66 84 68 / 70 60 10 50
TERRELL 79 65 83 66 / 70 70 30 40
CORSICANA 80 66 84 70 / 60 50 30 30
TEMPLE 77 65 84 69 / 40 30 30 30
MINERAL WELLS 74 62 86 64 / 70 20 10 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...DARRAH
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