870
FXUS64 KFWD 212327
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA OVER THE LAST HOUR INDICATES THAT WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS IS WANING AS
THE COMPLEX MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT THERE HAS BEEN A
NOTABLE UPTICK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING INDICATED A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH A LARGE AREA OF MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AIDED BY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS
CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT, FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. WE'LL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGH
AROUND 10 PM BEFORE THINGS START TO WIND DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO HANDLE A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF WEAK HEIGHT RISES FOLLOWING.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY'S ACTIVITY, AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
THAT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT, BUT
COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN TODAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
BY FRIDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. WE
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION TO THEM
AND COULD POSE AT LEAST A LOW END WIND THREAT. OTHERWISE, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
SATURDAY'S FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND IS
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT UPON FRIDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS THAT ANY EARLY MORNING RAIN/STORMS WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HUMID AND UNSTABLE. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AND
EXPANDED WESTWARD IF FRIDAY NIGHT'S ACTIVITY DOESN'T PAN OUT.
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FEATURING BROAD TROUGHING, DEEP MOISTURE, AND
WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED RAIN/STORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE'S
NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS N AND C TX CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE
DFW METROPLEX. WHILE THERE ARE SIGNS THAT STORMS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO BUILD INTO D10 FROM THE S AND W, STORM LONGEVITY IN
D10 INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT IS UNCERTAIN SO HAVE SHORTENED
VCTS/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO BEFORE 03Z. THE LACK OF RAIN
TODAY HAS ALSO REDUCED IFR/FG PROBS ACROSS THE REGION, SO KEPT
MVFR CIGS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AND REMOVED THE TEMPO
5SM BR FROM METROPLEX TAF SITES. CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN BY 15Z, BUT
SOME LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN MVFR UNTIL 17/18Z (30-40% CHANCE).
PATCHY FOG IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS C TX (KACT), SO HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP A 5SM BR FM GROUP IN THE WACO TAF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 84 69 83 / 60 10 50 40
WACO 67 84 70 81 / 60 10 10 50
PARIS 67 80 66 80 / 60 20 40 40
DENTON 66 82 67 82 / 70 10 60 40
MCKINNEY 67 81 67 81 / 60 10 50 40
DALLAS 68 84 69 84 / 50 10 50 40
TERRELL 67 81 67 82 / 60 10 50 40
CORSICANA 68 83 69 84 / 60 10 20 50
TEMPLE 68 84 69 82 / 60 10 10 60
MINERAL WELLS 64 84 65 82 / 50 0 50 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DUNN
LONG TERM....DUNN
AVIATION...DARRAH
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