265
FXUS64 KFWD 221827
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
127 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NORTH TEXAS BENEATH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS ALLOWED WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS LED TO A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT THINGS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER WEST, CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF WEST TEXAS, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LAST HOUR ALONG A DRYLINE IN FAR WEST TEXAS. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHER MEXICO. MODEST
INSTABILITY AS A RESULT OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER GENERALLY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
INHIBIT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
LEVEL OF STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH LATE EVENING WILL LIKELY HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE SPREADS NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IT'S LIKELY THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LOSE SOME
INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 3-4 AM.
NONETHELESS, IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE A DECENT
COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID, THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AS IT'S CURRENTLY ADVERTISED, WE SHOULD SEE
A LULL IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY, AND WE'LL KEEP POPS <20%. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT FEATURING WEAK LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. IF OUR OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE WEAKER OR DON'T MATERIALIZE AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST, THEN SATURDAY'S ACTIVITY WOULD MORE THAN
LIKELY GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WE'LL HAVE 60-80%
POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH <20% POPS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 30-40% BY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO, FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERIODIC INCREASES IN STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW,
WE'LL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD INTO TEXAS AIDED BY A 100 KT UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THINGS START TO TAPER OFF TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE'VE BEEN IN FOR A
WHILE, SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS SCATTERED OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
GENERALLY PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL TX. WE
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
FOR NOW WE'LL CARRY VCTS AT 08Z WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 9-11Z FOR
TSRA. WHILE THE TS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SEMI-ORGANIZED
COMPLEX, WE COULD SEE AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE CONVECTION, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER
TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL ON SATURDAY BEHIND ANY TS WITH ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON TS
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 83 68 83 / 60 30 30 20
WACO 68 82 67 81 / 30 40 50 30
PARIS 64 79 64 80 / 20 50 30 30
DENTON 65 82 66 82 / 60 20 30 20
MCKINNEY 66 82 66 81 / 60 20 30 20
DALLAS 68 84 68 83 / 60 30 30 20
TERRELL 66 83 66 81 / 40 30 40 30
CORSICANA 69 85 69 83 / 30 40 50 40
TEMPLE 68 82 67 81 / 20 50 60 40
MINERAL WELLS 64 83 64 82 / 80 30 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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