347
FXUS64 KFWD 222334
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND THREATS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS OF 6PM, AND THIS WILL BE THE
AREA TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS (IN PARTICULAR, THE
CONVECTION NEAR LUBBOCK) AS IT ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BELOW, WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LACKLUSTER SHEAR
ARE RATHER UNFAVORABLE FOR A ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION TO BE ABLE
TO ORGANIZE AND PUSH EAST WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS SUCH THAT NEW UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO PROGRESSIVELY DEVELOP ALONG A LEADING EDGE OUTFLOW,
ALLOWING SUCH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE/PROPAGATE EASTWARD
WHILE ALSO CONTAINING STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND
HAZARDS. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF INTEREST WILL BE ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT
TO 5AM, WHILE REMAINING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER TIME
AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NORTH TEXAS BENEATH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS ALLOWED WEAK SUBSIDENCE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITHIN
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS LED TO A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT THINGS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER WEST, CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
OF WEST TEXAS, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
LAST HOUR ALONG A DRYLINE IN FAR WEST TEXAS. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. MODEST
INSTABILITY AS A RESULT OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
WEST TEXAS SHOULD ENCOURAGE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER GENERALLY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL INHIBIT A MORE SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
THE LEVEL OF STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH LATE EVENING WILL LIKELY
HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SPREADS NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IT'S LIKELY THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LOSE SOME
INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 3-4 AM.
NONETHELESS, IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE A DECENT
COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
THAT BEING SAID, THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. AS IT'S CURRENTLY ADVERTISED, WE SHOULD SEE
A LULL IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY, AND WE'LL KEEP POPS <20%. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
WITHIN A CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT FEATURING WEAK LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. IF OUR OVERNIGHT STORMS ARE WEAKER OR DON'T MATERIALIZE AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST, THEN SATURDAY'S ACTIVITY WOULD MORE THAN
LIKELY GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WE'LL HAVE 60-80%
POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH <20% POPS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 30-40% BY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO, FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
SATURDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERIODIC INCREASES IN STORM CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW,
WE'LL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH WILL
SPREAD INTO TEXAS AIDED BY A 100 KT UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THINGS START TO TAPER OFF TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE'VE BEEN IN FOR A
WHILE, SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING
AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN WEST TEXAS AND
THE PANHANDLE (DISCUSSED IN GREATER DETAIL IN THE UPDATE SECTION
ABOVE). THE MAIN WINDOW OF POTENTIAL TSRA IMPACTS FOR D10
AIRPORTS IS ROUGHLY FROM 07Z TO 11Z BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY STEADILY
WEAKENS AND PUSHES EASTWARD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PERHAPS EVEN
ENTIRELY BEFORE THE MORNING PUSH. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY
RECOVER TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHORTLY AFTER. SOME RAGGED LOW CIGS
COULD ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL IS FAR TOO LOW AND
UNCERTAIN TO WARRANT ANY ADVERTISEMENT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES APPEAR UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 83 68 83 / 60 20 30 20
WACO 68 82 67 81 / 30 40 50 30
PARIS 64 79 64 80 / 20 70 30 30
DENTON 65 82 66 82 / 60 20 30 20
MCKINNEY 66 82 66 81 / 60 30 30 20
DALLAS 68 84 68 83 / 60 20 30 20
TERRELL 66 83 66 81 / 40 30 40 30
CORSICANA 69 85 69 83 / 30 40 50 40
TEMPLE 68 82 67 81 / 20 50 60 40
MINERAL WELLS 64 83 64 82 / 80 20 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DUNN
LONG TERM....DUNN
AVIATION...STALLEY
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