107
FXUS64 KFWD 230702
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS,
WITH A LOW-END DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN ANY STRONGER SEGMENTS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS LOW OVERALL, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
THE MAIN RECURRING HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GOES-16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS
SHOW A COMPACT DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA,
WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT SAGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A REMARKABLY
WELL-ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. THE
HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-20.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS SO FAR BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN, WITH CONTINUED
INFLOW OF MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE LINE HELPING MAINTAIN
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL.
INCREASING NOCTURNAL INHIBITION AND WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND, BUT THE CURRENT
STRENGTH OF THE LINE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS AND
JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH ROUGHLY 1-3 AM. GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY BETTER-ORGANIZED
SEGMENT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MORNING CONVECTION, A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS DESPITE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS, AND THE
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THIS MORNING’S STORMS MAY ALSO LIMIT
RECOVERY ACROSS MORE OF CENTRAL TEXAS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20, WHERE THE WARM, MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. DECREASING
INSTABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SHOULD FAVOR A WEAKENING TREND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY SATURDAYS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
IMPORTANT ON SUNDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING LINGERS ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY WHERE DAYTIME HEATING OVERLAPS WITH REMNANT
OUTFLOW OR WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, WHERE MOISTURE
WILL BE DEEPER AND THE AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER MORE EFFICIENTLY.
WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP THE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT LOW, BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND A MOIST COLUMN WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN STRONGER CELLS.
A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MEMORIAL DAY AS
THE WEEKEND DISTURBANCE DRIFTS EAST AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES SPREAD
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, MAINLY EAST OF I-35, BUT MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY DRY FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS, PROVIDING A BETTER SOURCE OF
LIFT OVER A STILL-MOIST AIR MASS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT
WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN WHERE STORMS REPEAT OR MOVE SLOWLY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO TAPER LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS
EAST AND WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DETAILS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK REMAIN LOWER
CONFIDENCE, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS
LIMITED AT THIS RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR LATE-MAY
NORMALS MOST DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S, THOUGH ANY DAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL END UP COOLER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WELL-ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE METROPLEX TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE
MAIN IMPACT WINDOW ROUGHLY 06-09Z WEST TO EAST ACROSS D10. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 30 KT, BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, AND LOWERED CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE METROPLEX
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 09Z, WITH WINDS RETURNING TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE STORMS.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, THOUGH A FEW LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE MORNING CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX, KEEPING D10 DRY AFTER THE MORNING STORMS.
KACT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO BE NEAR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP ONLY VCTS IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 85 68 83 68 / 40 40 20 10
WACO 84 67 81 66 / 40 50 40 20
PARIS 81 65 80 65 / 70 40 20 20
DENTON 83 66 82 66 / 30 40 10 10
MCKINNEY 83 66 81 66 / 40 40 20 10
DALLAS 86 69 84 68 / 30 40 20 10
TERRELL 84 66 81 66 / 60 40 30 10
CORSICANA 87 69 83 68 / 70 40 40 20
TEMPLE 84 68 82 67 / 60 60 40 20
MINERAL WELLS 84 64 83 63 / 60 30 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SELLERS
LONG TERM....SELLERS
AVIATION...SELLERS
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